Iran Update, April 21, 2023
Former President Hassan Rouhani has made national referenda the focus of the Iranian political discourse, forcing the regime into a complicated public discussion over acceptable versus unacceptable referenda.
Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid evoked the prospect of military unrest in response to worsening domestic conditions during his Friday prayer sermon, likely to galvanize support for significant reforms.
Abdol Hamid is trying to counter regime attempts to weaken his movement by addressing the core issues uniting his following.
At least eight protests occurred in seven cities across seven provinces.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-21-2023
Strike activity among Iranian petrochemical, copper, and steel industry workers increased significantly in response to worsening economic conditions.
At least 14 protests occurred in 13 cities across 12 provinces.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on April 24 that Russian ships are ferrying Iranian ammunition across the Caspian Sea to resupply Russian troops fighting in Ukraine.
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani is trying to remove four provincial governors from office, likely to sideline political opposition, especially Iraqi Sunnis.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei briefly lost control of his audience during a speech to Basij students, indicating the degree to which dissatisfaction has spread among parts of the Iranian regime's most loyal factions.[1]
Western Persian-language outlets circulated leaked footage of the speech on April 22. The footage showed a Basij university student in the audience interrupting Khamenei’s speech, shouting “[regime officials] do not listen to the people's voice.” Khamenei appeared to dismiss the student, leading the other audience members to reportedly protest Khamenei’s response. These audience members called on Khamenei to respond to the student's grievances, after which Khamenei abruptly ended the speech.[2] The outbursts from the audience are remarkable given that the regime likely vetted each participant thoroughly beforehand, permitting only individuals who ardently support the regime to attend the speech.
It is similarly remarkable that an actor with access to the supreme leader's office leaked the footage, indicating further frustrations among some regime elements. The circumstances of the leak suggest that someone with access to the footage sought to undermine Khamenei by publishing it. The Office of the Supreme Leader omitted the exchange in an edited recording of the speech published on Khamenei’s website on April 18.[3]
Social media users have speculated that the regime or some other actor planted the Basij university student in the audience to interrupt Khamenei, but a much simpler explanation is that Iran's worsening domestic conditions are spreading frustration even among the regime's most loyal supporters. This explanation is consistent with CTP’s previous assessments about widespread dissatisfaction within the regime. CTP observed on October 30, 2022, that the regime appeared concerned about the morale of its security forces during the Mahsa Amini protest wave.[4] IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency reported on October 19, 2022, that two percent of detained protesters were government employees.[5]
IRGC Coordination Deputy Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naghdi tried to downplay the possibility of dissent within the regime in a televised interview on April 23. Naghdi emphasized the respect that the security forces’ personnel held for Khamenei.[6] Naghdi described Khamenei as among the “most outstanding” world leaders whose loyal soldiers always “accept his word as superior.” It is noteworthy that Naghdi, in particular, made these remarks. Naghdi has held several prominent roles in which he has been responsible for the Basij Organization and the indoctrination of armed forces personnel. Naghdi was the Basij commander from 2009-16 and the IRGC deputy for cultural and social affairs from 2016-19.
Details:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-24-2023