Iran Crisis Update, February 17, 2023
Actors from across the Iranian political spectrum are publicly acknowledging Mir Hossein Mousavi’s February 4 call for “foundational change” in the Islamic Republic.
Iran is reportedly taking advantage of humanitarian aid convoys to move rockets or missiles into eastern Syria.
Iran targeted an Israeli-owned oil tanker in the Arabian Sea on February 10, according to Western reports.
At least four protests occurred in four cities across three provinces.
The Ministry of Intelligence and Security Deputy Hossein Hojjati stated on February 17 that approximately 30,000 security personnel participated in suppressing the Mahsa Amini protest movement.
Iranian officials continued to frame increased Sino-Iranian cooperation as a partial solution to Iran’s deteriorating economic conditions.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-17-2023
Iran Crisis Update, February 21, 2023
The Mahsa Amini protest movement has likely entered a new phase, although it is unclear what the pattern and nature of anti-regime activity will characterize this new phase.
Western media outlets have reported lingering discontent throughout the Iranian population, corroborating CTP’s prior assessment that conditions remain present for the resumption of significant anti-regime activity.
Moderate and reformist politicians are urgently renewing their calls for the regime to address protester grievances.
Iran continues to face severe economic issues, which may fuel increased political attacks against President Ebrahim Raisi and his administration.
The worsening economic conditions in Iran are facilitating solidarity and possibly cooperation between protest organizers and some domestic economic actors.
The efforts of regime officials and protest groups to associate the protest movement with economic issues will complicate any regime effort to de-escalate with the population.
Bloomberg reported on February 19 that International Atomic Energy Organization (IAEA) monitors had detected 84-percent-enriched uranium—the highest level of enrichment in Iran reported to date—at an unspecified nuclear facility, citing two senior diplomats.
At least 12 protests occurred in 10 cities across eight provinces on February 19, 14 protests occurred in 14 cities across 13 provinces on February 20, and seven protests occurred in six cities across five provinces on February 21. CTP did not record protest activity on February 18.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-21-2023