Iran Crisis Update, February 15, 2023
Protest coordinators have likely strengthened their organizational capabilities and internal infrastructure ahead of calls for anti-regime demonstrations on February 16.
Iranian leadership is setting rhetorical conditions for reinforcing further censorship and indoctrination measures.
At least three protests occurred in three cities across three provinces.
UK-based Amwaj Media reported on February 14 that Iranian and Ukrainian civil and military officials have held a series of “expert and technical” meetings in Oman since November 2022.
Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger Rybar claimed on February 15 that Iran and Russia were creating and sharing technology on high-precision bombs, missiles for UAVs and attack aircraft.
President Ebrahim Raisi gave a speech to Chinese academics in Beijing on February 15.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-15-2023
Iran and its proxies may be preparing for a major effort with military elements in northern Syria.
Protest organizers successfully generated significant turnout for the planned countrywide protests on February 16. At least 15 protests occurred in 13 cities across 12 provinces.
Hardline Iranian media is continuing to give increased public attention to prominent moderates and reformists who have criticized the regime.
Senior Iranian officials promoted the slogan “Woman, Chastity, Security” on February 14, capturing much of the regime response to the Mahsa Amini protests.
An unidentified individual threw homemade hand grenades at a Basij base in Mohammad Shahr, Alborz Province.
The UN released a report detailing that unidentified member states assess that the de facto leader of al Qaeda, Saif al Adel, is currently living in Iran. [38] The US State Department expressed support for this assessment on February 15.[39] Adel is a former Egyptian lieutenant colonel and has been a senior officer in al Qaeda for decades. He became al Qaeda leader after the US killed his predecessor, Ayman al Zawahiri, in Kabul, Afghanistan in July 2022. Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian denied that Adel is living in Iran in response to the UN report.[40]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-16-2023