Told Reuters that Hezbollah’s dismantlement was something that would never happen and the deal in effect legitimised an open-ended Israeli military presence.
Nothing will happen. Israel won’t withdraw, and Hezbollah won’t dismantle. Israeli prime minister has no domestic political space to withdraw while Hezbollah is still armed and northern Israeli communities remain displaced.
A narrower pact focused on Hezbollah’s pullout from south of the Litani River, an expanded Lebanese army deployment and an extension of state authority, would have stood a better chance of success.
https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2071718062387036343
Israel’s goal should not be to exploit the weakness of the Lebanese government. The more Israel acts in this way, the more it will reduce the chances of the Lebanese government acting against Hezbollah and even promoting its disarmament.
Israel should act to strengthen the Lebanese government, even if that means a more significant withdrawal from the security zone. However, as emerges from the leaks, it seems that the government’s real goal is to gain legitimacy for the continued presence of IDF forces in the security zone. The implication is preserving friction with Hezbollah, instead of creating conditions that would allow the Lebanese government to strengthen its control over the south of the country.
https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2071549750344659273