Aimen returns to bring us up to date on all the latest manoeuvrings in the Middle East.
Aimen and Thomas discuss:
Trump’s chaotic, micromanaged Iran diplomacy and reliance on inexperienced “real estate” advisers.
Pakistan, Qatar, Oman, Turkey, and Egypt as flawed or compromised mediators with “skin in the game.”
Why Aimen thinks Switzerland would be the proper neutral US–Iran mediator.
Oman’s tilt toward Iran amid assumptions of American decline and future Iranian regional weight.
The UAE–Saudi split over Iran: Emirati hawkishness versus Saudi caution and strategic bruising.
Saudi resentment over Yemen, Houthi attacks, Israel’s freer hand, and lack of US security guarantees.
Israel, Hezbollah, Lebanon, and Iran: efforts to decouple the Lebanon front from the US–Iran track
https://podcasts.apple.com/ae/podcast/has-trump-lost-the-middle-east/id1443491069
A lot of interesting thoughts laid out from comment 2138 thru 2140. As a quick response I would say a key difference is that with the top leadership killed at one blow by Israel, a lot of institutional politically strategic thinking was also destroyed. In the short run, at least, a number of aggressive thinkers who may have been suppressed by former leaders now have the opportunity to raise their ugly heads and seek power. There will likely be serious internal struggles, but eventually the more politically intelligent will likely rise to the top. How much more damage is done within Iran and by us and Israel before that happens remains to be seen.
A lot will depend from our perspective on what happens with potential Democrat wins short (2026) and long (2028) term. To what extent will the sympathies for the murdered Iran protesters and Republican desires to support Trump’s in this war determine our continued efforts in Iran? Would Democrat victory or a very different Republican leadership win in 2028 bring back the long term military expertise and limit Trump’s personal diplomats, to provide the kind of serious diplomacy and military efforts needed to prevent a nuclear Iran?
Right now the IRGC seems to be top dog, but they are already fighting water and power battles within Iran. They will have a serious problem dealing with their water crisis, unless there is a significant shift in our world wide drought, or some seriously scientific approaches are taken. Iran must correct the half century of Mullah neglect of a 2,500 year successful Persian water management system. This neglect currently prevails, and I suspect IRGC lacks the mentality to approach it effectively. The question is whether political leaders in our own country are able to think and plan with these facts in play? More thoughts in a day or two.