Your posts this morning are making me feel disheartened.
Key points to keep in mind:
1) Iran can’t unilaterally open the SoH: only the maritime insurance industry can. And it won’t as long as a nuclear deal remains unnegotiated, as the threat of renewed military strikes remain.
2) In other words, best case it will still take months for the SoH to get back to pre-February 28 levels.
3) The US negotiating position has to shift from all stick to some stick/some carrot, because we’ve tried the stick alone and it wasn’t enough to coerce strategic capitulation. And that carrot for Iran is $$$, either from unblocked assets or an easing of sanctions.
4) An Iranian commitment to ‘never have a nuclear weapon’ is about as dependable as a USG commitment not to attack Iran again. Any worthwhile nuclear deal needs IAEA w/Additional Protocol as a starting point.
5) Israel isn’t going to stop in Southern Lebanon.
6) Iran is not going to let the US participate in digging out the HEU.
https://x.com/AlanEyre1/status/2060478736286302408
and Danny C:
Needless to say, I fully agree with these points.
However, there is one critical aspect that policymakers in Washington need to understand about the economic dimension of the Iran challenge. The debate is often framed as a choice between sticks and carrots, but in reality there are limits to both.
As we have seen repeatedly, military and economic pressure alone cannot force the regime to abandon what it views as its core strategic assets. At the same time, economic incentives have clear limitations as well. Even if the regime were offered tens or hundreds of billions of dollars in sanctions relief and economic benefits, it would not relinquish what it considers its sovereign right to enrich uranium, develop ballistic missiles and drones, or maintain its network of regional proxies.
These are not bargaining chips from the regime’s perspective. They are fundamental pillars of its security doctrine and revolutionary identity. Preserving the regime is certainly its highest priority, but not at any price and not at the expense of the ideological principles that define its legitimacy. Assuming that unprecedented economic benefits alone can persuade Tehran to abandon these capabilities reflects a misunderstanding of how the Islamic Republic views its own survival and strategic interests.
https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2060494936391430448
We must focus on the ideological—that is, religious—aspect of the IRGC.