Iran Update Special Report, March 23, 2026
US President Donald Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reach a deal with the United States to March 27.[2] Trump had previously threatened to strike Iranian power plants if Iran did not stop attacks around the Strait of Hormuz by March 23.[3] In extending the deadline, Trump said that Iran agreed tocease uranium enrichment, relinquish its existing stockpiles, and remain “low-key on the missiles.”[4] Trump told reporters that his team is “dealing with a man that I believe is the most respected, not the supreme leader, we have not heard from him.”[5] An Israeli official told Axios that US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have spoken to Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.[6] A source with knowledge of the matter told Axios that there “did not appear” to have been direct talks with Ghalibaf, but that Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey have passed messages between the United States and Iran and were pursuing a call between the Trump administration and Ghalibaf.[7]
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on March 23 that Trump told him that the United States sees an opportunity to “leverage the military achievements of the war” to secure all strategic objectives through an eventual agreement.[8] Netanyahu conveyed that Trump believed such an agreement could safeguard shared US-Israeli interests, depending on how the emerging diplomatic channel unfolds.[9] A separate source familiar with the matter told Axios that the US Vice President JD Vance discussed United States-Iran negotiations with Netanyahu in a phone call on March 23.[10]
Ghalibaf publicly rejected reports of United States-Iran negotiations on X on March 23.[11] Ghalibaf added that all Iranian officials stand firmly behind Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and the Iranian people’s demand for “complete and remorseful punishment” of the United States and Israel.[12]
That Ghalibaf is leading diplomatic engagement with the United States is consistent with reports that he has consolidated tremendous influence in Iran, especially since the current war began. Ghalibaf is a former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officer who maintains close ties to the military establishment but has operated primarily as a politician in recent decades.[13] Ghalibaf reportedly assumed an unprecedented senior command role during the 12-Day War, however, demonstrating his influence and authority in the regime.[14] Ghalibaf was also reportedly behind the formation of the Defense Council after the 12-Day War, which was meant to streamline decision-making and prepare the regime for future conflict against the United States and Israel.[15] More recently, Ghalibaf was reportedly among the small cadre of IRGC officers who aggressively intervened in the supreme leader succession process to ensure that Mojtaba Khamenei replaced his father.[16] Remarks from US and Israeli security officials on March 22 suggest that this inner circle of IRGC figures has been especially empowered since the ascension of Mojtaba, who remains badly wounded.[17] The killing of Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani may have removed yet another constraint on Ghalibaf’s influence, given that Larijani played a similarly dominant role in Iranian foreign and defense policy and had opposed Mojtaba’s accession, instead backing his own brother, Sadegh Amoli Larijani, for supreme leadership.[18]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-special-report-march-23-2026/
Iran Update Special Report, March 24, 2026
Iran has reportedly mined the Strait of Hormuz with about a dozen Maham 3 and Maham 7 limpet mines.[1] US officials told CBS News that Iran has laid at least a dozen Maham 3 and Maham 7 mines, but a separate US official told CBS that Iran has laid fewer than a dozen mines in the strait.[2] The Maham 3 is a high-explosive “moored, buoyant, anti-shipping” naval mine with a maximum depth of 100 meters, according to the Collective Awareness to Unexploded Ordnance (CAT-UXO) organization.[3] The Maham 3 is equipped with magnetic and acoustic sensors, which it uses to target vessels.[4] The Maham 3 can determine a ship’s presence from around three meters in all directions, according to CAT-UXO.[5] The Maham 7 is a high-explosive “bottom influence” mine that sits on the seafloor and is equipped with magnetic and acoustic sensors that it uses to target medium-sized ships, landing crafts, and small submarines.[6] The Maham 7 is lightweight and can be deployed by surface vessels as well as via parachute from aircraft or helicopters.[7] The number of mines that Iran has reportedly laid is relatively consistent with a March 10 Wall Street Journal report that Iran had laid fewer than ten mines.[8] Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine said on March 19 that US Central Command (CENTCOM) has destroyed 44 Iranian minelaying vessels.[9]
Iran is reportedly requiring some vessels to pay a fee to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Maritime intelligence company Lloyd’s List reported on March 23 that over 20 vessels have taken a “Tehran-approved route” to transit the Strait of Hormuz through Iranian territorial waters since the war began.[10] A senior reporter at Lloyd’s List reported that vessels that transit through the approved route pass by Larak Island, where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) verifies vessel details and, in some cases, requires vessels to pay a fee.[11] Lloyd’s List reported that at least two vessels, including a Chinese state-owned feeder tanker, have paid Iran a fee in exchange for safe passage through the strait, with one fee reported to have been around $2 million USD.[12]
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian appointed former IRGC Deputy Commander and Expediency Discernment Council Secretary Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr as the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) secretary on March 24, replacing Ali Larijani.[13] Pezeshkian reportedly appointed Zolghadr with Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s approval.[14] Zolghadr is a hardline figure with deep connections to Iran’s military and judicial apparatuses. Zolghadr commanded the IRGC Ramadan Headquarters during the Iran-Iraq War.[15] Zolghadr served as the IRGC coordination deputy between 1989 and 1997 and IRGC deputy commander between 1997 and 2005.[16] Zolghadr was heavily critical of former reformist President Mohammad Khatami and was one of the primary architects of former hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s election in 2005.[17] Zolghadr served as the security deputy in the Interior Ministry during Ahmadinejad’s term and later served as the Armed Forces General Staff deputy for Basij affairs, playing a large role in suppressing the 2009 Green Movement.[18] The UN sanctioned Zolghadr in 2007 for his involvement in developing Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.[19] Ali Larijani’s brother, Sadegh Amoli Larijani, appointed Zolghadr as Expediency Discernment Council secretary in 2021.[20]
Iran is attempting to conduct cyberattacks targeting Israel, the United States, and the Gulf states as part of its asymmetric strategy to try to degrade the combined force’s willingness to continue their war effort.[78] Israel National Cyber Directorate Chief Yossi Karadi said on March 24 that dozens of Iranian hacker groups have attempted to conduct both kinetic and cyber-attacks targeting Israeli utilities and businesses, as well as Gulf states’ infrastructure.[79] Karadi said that a hacker group broadcast false messages on Israel Railways’ monitors in a few locations on March 11.[80] Karadi also noted that Iran has increasingly coordinated cyberattacks with Hezbollah.[81] An Iranian-linked hacker group previously conducted a cyber-attack targeting a US healthcare company on March 11, likely to try to impose political pressure on the US administration.[82] The US Justice Department seized domains linked to the Iranian Intelligence and Security Ministry involved in recent cyberattacks or hacking attempts on March 19.[83]
Iran may be increasing its rate of drone attacks targeting Bahrain to compensate for its apparent pause in attacks targeting Qatar. Iranian drone attacks against Bahrain have increased in recent days. Iran fired 36 and 19 drones targeting Bahrain on March 23 and 24, respectively, compared to two drones on both March 21 and 22 (see graphs below).[88] The timing of this increase suggests that Iran may be redirecting drone fire away from Qatar and toward Bahrain.
Iran continued to target Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on March 24. Unspecified sources told Israeli media on March 22 that Iranian strikes against Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE will “continue as usual” even though Iran is reportedly avoiding attacking Qatar and Saudi Arabia.[89] Two unspecified sources told Israeli media on March 22 that Iran has decided to limit its attacks on Saudi Arabia due to concerns that continued strikes could trigger a direct Saudi military response.[90] The volume of Iranian drones targeting Saudi Arabia has fluctuated in recent days. Iran launched 47 drones at Saudi Arabia on March 23 but only launched one drone at Saudi Arabia on March 24 (see graph below). Iran also conducted the following attacks against Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE on March 24:
Bahrain: Iran launched 19 drones and six missiles targeting Bahrain on March 24.[91] The Emirati Defense Ministry reported that an Emirati army contractor was killed in an Iranian ballistic missile attack on Bahrain.[92] The attack also injured five other Emirati soldiers.[93]
Kuwait: Iran launched a slightly higher volume of missiles and drones targeting Kuwait on March 24 than it has in the past three days (see graph below). Iran fired 13 drones and 17 missiles targeting Kuwait.[94]
UAE: Iran launched 17 drones and five ballistic missiles targeting the UAE on March 24.[95] These volumes of drones and missiles are consistent with Iranian fire volumes over the past week targeting the UAE (see graph below).[96]
The Lebanese government has continued to act against Hezbollah and Iran. The Lebanese Foreign Ministry withdrew on March 24 accreditation from Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon Mohammad Reza Sheibani, declaring him persona non grata and demanding that he leave Lebanon.[153] Hezbollah condemned the Lebanese Foreign Ministry’s decision, stating that “it constitutes a coup against [Hezbollah].”[154] Hezbollah added that the decision ”opens the doors to internal division, deepens the national rift, and plunges the country into a highly dangerous path of dependency, weakness, and vulnerability.”[155] Lebanese authorities also reportedly arrested eight Hezbollah operatives transporting 21 rockets to southern Lebanon on March 24.[156] The Lebanese government’s actions are notable because no previous Lebanese government has taken such direct steps against Hezbollah or the IRGC.
US President Donald Trump told reporters on March 24 that the United States is negotiating with Iran.[178] Trump said that Iran would “like to make a deal.”[179] Unspecified sources told Axios on March 24 that the United States and regional partners, including Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan, have discussed holding high-level peace talks with Iran on March 26 but are waiting for Iran’s response.[180] Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on March 24 that Pakistan would be willing to host the US-Iran talks.[181] An unspecified Iranian source told CNN on March 24 that the United States reached out to Iran via various intermediaries.[182] The source claimed that there have not been “full-on negotiations” between the United States and Iran.[183] Three senior sources in Tehran separately told Reuters on March 24 that Iran is hardening its position in any potential talks with the United States.[184] Iran would demand guarantees against future military action, compensation for wartime losses, formal control of the Strait of Hormuz, and no limits on its ballistic missile program, according to the sources.[185] Trump previously extended his deadline for Iran to reach a deal with the United States to March 27.[186]
mor + maps: https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-special-report-march-24-2026/