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To: nuconvert
Iran Update, February 5, 2026

There are inconsistent reports about whether US-Iran talks in Oman on February 6 will be limited to the nuclear program or also include discussions on Iran's ballistic missile program and regional proxy and partner network. Three unspecified Iranian officials and an Arab official told the New York Times on February 5 that the United States and Iran agreed to focus on Iran's nuclear program, but will also discuss Iran's ballistic missile capabilities and regional proxies during their upcoming talks.[1] Axios, in contrast, cited US officials who reported that the bilateral US-Iran talks in Oman on February 6 will only cover nuclear issues.[2] A political analyst close to the Iranian regime stated that the regime only authorized officials to discuss the nuclear issue among “other minor issues” and noted that Iran will never negotiate over its ballistic missiles. [3] Iranian officials have also continued to publicly insist that Iran will only discuss the nuclear program and will not negotiate on its ballistic missile program or its Axis of Resistance.[4]

Iran may offer limited concessions on its nuclear program, but there appears to be continued disagreement among regime elements over some specific concessions. Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar reportedly proposed a framework on February 5 for the upcoming US-Iran negotiation, which stipulates that Iran has to commit to zero uranium enrichment for three years before limiting its enrichment below 1.5 percent, transferring its highly enriched uranium to a third country, and halting all weapons transfers to its proxies. It is unclear whether Iran would be okay with moving its highly enriched uranium to a third country, however. Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Ali Larijani reportedly said that Iran would be willing to transfer its uranium to a third party, such as Russia. Other Iranian officials, such as Supreme Leader Representative to the Supreme National Security Council's Defense Council Ali Shamkhani, have rejected such a transfer.[5]

Iran remains unlikely to make any other concessions related to its missile capabilities and its support for its partner and proxy network in the region, however. Iran's partner and proxy network and its missile capabilities are two long-standing pillars of its defensive strategy.[6] Abandoning these capabilities would require a complete rethink of Iranian defense strategy. A rethink of this magnitude is theoretically possible, but Iranian officials have shown no willingness to rethink their strategy.[7] Iranian officials have repeatedly stated that they believe that their ballistic missiles performed admirably during the 12-Day War and have discussed developing more technologically advanced missiles.[8] Iran has likewise shown no willingness to decrease its support for its proxies and partners in the region.[9] Iran has continued to help fund Hezbollah, for example.[10] Shamkhani also told Hezbollah-affiliated media on February 2 that Iran will continue to support the members of its Axis of Resistance and that Iran would not give in to the US demand to halt its support.[11]

Iran has reportedly continued to take steps to rebuild its nuclear program as part of its nuclear reconstitution efforts to help Iran's nuclear facilities withstand Israeli and US airstrikes. US President Donald Trump told NBC on February 4 that the United States found that Iran is trying to restart the nuclear program at a new, unspecified site in a “different part of Iran.”[12] Trump warned Iran that the United States will do “very bad things” to Iran if Iran restarts its nuclear program.”[13] It is unclear which part of Iran Trump was referring to and whether Iran is relocating any elements of its nuclear program. CNN also reported on February 4 that US intelligence has found that Iran is trying to rebuild its nuclear facilities “deeper underground.”[14]

Iran probably calculates that by dispersing elements of its nuclear program and burying them deeper, it will be able to increase the military requirements to destroy nuclear facilities. These efforts would presumably incorporate lessons learned from the vulnerabilities at the Fordow facility that the United States exploited in the June 2025 strikes.

The Chairman of the SNSC’s Defense Council, President Masoud Pezeshkian, appointed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s representative to the Defense Council, Ali Shamkhani, as the Defense Council's secretary on February 5.[15] Shamkhani’s appointment is almost certainly at the behest of the supreme leader. The Defense Council is Iran's highest national security decision-making body's sub-council on strategic defense, which the SNSC established in August 2025 to streamline decision-making during wartime.[16] Khamenei appointed Shamkhani, alongside former SNSC Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian, as his representative on the council three days after its establishment.[17] A Shamkhani-affiliated outlet reported on February 5 that the secretary's role involves coordinating an integrated defense strategy that strengthens preparedness, addresses emerging threats, aligns state institutions with defense priorities, and oversees defense diplomacy and strategic communications.[18] The same outlet proposed in July 2025 the establishment of a notably similar “Strategic Command Center” that would have “cross-sectoral authority” to rapidly respond to evolving threats.[19] This outlet's affiliation with Shamkhani suggests that the July 2025 op-ed reflects his broader ambitions for shaping Iran's strategic defense policy. His appointment as secretary of the newly-formed Defense Council — whose mandate has not yet been publicly defined — indicates that the Defense Council will function as a central body enabling rapid and coordinated decision-making.

https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-5-2026/

1,716 posted on 02/05/2026 11:48:45 PM PST by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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To: nuconvert; BeauBo

February 6, 2026

Location: Iran, countrywide

Event: Increased security measures, road closures, public transportation disruptions, and internet blockages are ongoing. The Government of Iran continues to restrict access to mobile, landline, and national internet networks. Airlines continue to limit or cancel flights to and from Iran.

U.S. citizens should expect continued internet outages, plan alternative means of communication, and, if safe to do so, consider departing Iran by land to Armenia or Türkiye.

Actions to Take:

Leave Iran now. Have a plan for departing Iran that does not rely on U.S. government help.
Flight cancellations and disruptions are possible with little warning. Check directly with your airlines for updates.
If you cannot leave, find a secure location within your residence or another safe building. Have a supply of food, water, medications, and other essential items.
Avoid demonstrations, keep a low profile, and stay aware of your surroundings.
Monitor local media for breaking news. Be prepared to adjust your plans.
Keep your phone charged and maintain communication with family and friends to inform them of your status.
Enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive the latest updates on security in Iran.

https://ir.usembassy.gov/security-alert-land-border-crossings-february-5-2026/


1,717 posted on 02/06/2026 12:22:29 AM PST by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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To: nuconvert
Iran Update, February 6, 2026

Iran and the United States held talks in Muscat, Oman, on February 6 to establish a framework for future negotiations.[1] The Omani Foreign Affairs Ministry stated that the talks between the Iranian and US delegations, which were headed by Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, respectively, “focused on creating the right conditions for the resumption of diplomatic and technical negotiations” and gaining each party's “commitment” to the talks.[2] US Central Command Commander Admiral Brad Cooper also attended the talks, according to a video published by Omani media and a US official speaking to the Wall Street Journal.[3] Araghchi claimed that he discussed “Iran's rights” in a “good atmosphere” with the US delegation and that the talks were a “good start.”[4] A political analyst close to the Iranian regime reported that the talks aimed to establish a framework for negotiations. He added that the talks were focused on “announcing positions, making demands, and presenting proposals” and that Iran and the United States “did not reach an agreement on generalities.”[5] Axios reported on February 6 that the United States and Iran will hold another round of talks in the coming days, citing a source with knowledge of the talks.[6] Israeli media, citing two sources familiar with the matter, reported that the United States told Iran that it expects Iran to make a “tangible and significant concession” regarding its nuclear program in the next round of talks.[7]

Iran remains unlikely to compromise on its red lines, which include uranium enrichment, its ballistic missile program and support for the Axis of Resistance, which reduces the likelihood that Iran and the United States will be able to reach a diplomatic solution during subsequent rounds of negotiations. Araghchi stated on February 6 that he conveyed during the talks that Iran would not agree to stop uranium enrichment or move Iran's uranium stockpile abroad.[8] An Iranian journalist close to the regime similarly stated on February 5 that the regime decided in recent days not to agree to transfer its enriched uranium stockpile to a third country.[9] The Iranian regime's English-language outlet emphasized on February 6 that Iran's ballistic missile program and support for the Axis of Resistance have “no place” in Iran's talks with the United States.[10] A Tehran-based Al Jazeera journalist separately reported on February 6 that the US demands also include curbing Iran's energy exports to the People's Republic of China.[11] Unspecified Iranian officials separately told Iranian state media on February 6 that Iran is prioritizing the lifting of sanctions.[12]

A policy analyst close to the Iranian regime reported on February 5 that the Defense Council will operate independently of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC).[29] The analyst added that the Defense Council will formally remain a sub-council of the SNSC but will “advance [Iran's] defense policies” independently of the SNSC.[30] The SNSC, which is Iran's highest national security decision-making body, established the Defense Council in August 2025 to streamline wartime decision-making.[31] Iranian media reported in August 2025 that the Defense Council would take “rapid, balanced, and coordinated” steps to confront threats to Iran.[32] The Defense Council's autonomy could create new bureaucratic processes and thereby hamper decision-making during periods of conflict, however. This report comes after Iranian President and Defense Council Chairman Masoud Pezeshkian appointed Ali Shamkhani as the Defense Council's secretary on February 5.[33]

Iranian Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Minister Brigadier General Aziz Nasir Zadeh possibly warned Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev during a meeting in Baku, Azerbaijan, on February 6 against allowing Israel to use Azerbaijan's territory to conduct operations against Iran. Nasir Zadeh and Aliyev discussed bilateral cooperation and regional security issues, as well as the threat posed by “the intervention of regional actors,” almost certainly in reference to Israel.[34] Aliyev stated that Azerbaijan “will not allow any threat to Iran.”[35] Iranian media outlets and officials accused Azerbaijan of allowing Israel to launch strikes against Iran from Azerbaijani territory during the June 2025 Israel-Iran War.[36] Iranian officials have also previously expressed concern about Israeli influence in Azerbaijan and deepening relations between Israel and Azerbaijan.[37] Nasir Zadeh separately met with Azerbaijani Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov on February 6 to discuss bilateral security cooperation.[38]

The US State Department sanctioned 14 vessels and 15 entities, including four entities based in Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, on February 6 for transporting and facilitating the sale and purchase of Iranian oil.[39] Vessels in Iran's “shadow fleet,” including those that the US Treasury Department sanctioned on January 6, generate revenue that the Iranian regime uses to fund the Axis of Resistance, its weapons programs, and security services.[40] The United States has sanctioned over 180 vessels involved in transporting Iranian oil since January 2025.[41]

https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-6-2026/

1,718 posted on 02/07/2026 4:14:01 AM PST by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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