Iran is likely trying to deter US military action against Iran by deploying forces and conducting naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS)-affiliated outlet Defa Press claimed on January 29 that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy deployed “hundreds of fast, missile-launching, and support vessels in close proximity” to the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, which is operating in the Arabian Sea.[1] Commercially available satellite imagery also showed that the IRGC Navy's “Shahid Bagheri” drone carrier is currently six kilometers off the coast of Bandar Abbas, a major port city that is located on the Strait of Hormuz.[2] The IRGC Navy's deployment of fast attack craft (FAC) and “missile-launching” vessels is consistent with Iran's asymmetric naval strategy that counters larger and more technologically advanced naval forces through high speed and short-range missile capabilities.[3] Western media outlets separately reported on January 29 that the IRGC Navy will conduct a two-day, live-fire exercise in the Strait of Hormuz on February 1 and 2.[4] The IRGC Navy's upcoming live-fire exercise is likely a response to the USS Abraham Lincoln's arrival in the Middle East and is likely meant to deter the United States from attacking Iran. The deployment of naval assets and the upcoming exercise are also notable because Iran did not use any naval assets during the June 2025 Israel-Iran War. IRGC Spokesperson Ali Mohammad Naeini claimed in November 2025 that Iran did not use its naval forces during the war because there was “no need” to expand the war.[5]
Iran could respond to potential US military action by threatening US naval assets and obstructing international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials have long threatened to disrupt shipping in the Strait as a way to deter the United States from implementing sanctions or taking military action against Iran.[6] One of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s advisers to the Defense Council, Ali Shamkhani, warned Iranian adversaries in October 2025 that Iran's response to any escalation in the Strait would not be “limited.”[7] Some regime-affiliated outlets have expressed support for disrupting international shipping to inflict an economic cost on the United States.[8] One such outlet claimed that Iran could increase the price of oil to such a degree that it would “collapse” the US economy.[9] Iran responded to the United States’ maximum pressure campaign in 2019 by threatening international shipping, including by seizing a British oil tanker, harassing vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and conducting an attack targeting Saudi oil facilities.[10]
Iranian media outlets circulated a January 29 Al Jazeera report that claimed that the Iranian Navy will hold a joint military exercise with the People's Republic of China (PRC) and Russia in the Sea of Oman and the Indian Ocean “in the coming days.”[11] The reports did not specify whether the Artesh or the IRGC Navy will participate in the exercise. Iran, the PRC, and Russia have held annual naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman in recent years, usually in the month of March.[12] Russian and Chinese media have not confirmed the exercise at the time of this writing.
Iran is continuing to rebuild its nuclear facilities and trying to fortify them against future attacks. Recent US intelligence found that Iran is trying to rebuild its nuclear facilities “deeper underground,” according to a person familiar with recent US intelligence speaking to CNN on January 29. [13] It is unclear which specific nuclear facilities Iran is trying to rebuild “deeper underground.” It is possible that the facilities include the Mount Kolang Gaz La (Pickaxe Mountain) facility near the Natanz Nuclear Facility in Esfahan Province, although the United States and Israel have not targeted this facility, and Iran would therefore not need to “rebuild” it. Unspecified analysts told the Washington Post in September 2025 that the Mount Kolang Gaz La facility's underground halls may be between 260 and 330 feet deep, which is deeper than Fordow.[14] The International Atomic Energy Agency has never inspected this facility, which indicates that Iran could seek to limit international visibility into the site's purpose.[15] The Iranian regime is likely rebuilding its nuclear facilities deeper underground to reduce their vulnerability to deep-penetration munitions, such as the GBU-57 massive ordnance penetrator (MOP). The United States dropped 12 30,000-pound GBU-57 MOPs on Fordow in June 2025, targeting the site's ventilation shafts that led to a centrifuge cascade hall located at least 200 feet underground.[16]
The CNN report comes as Iran has taken steps to rebuild parts of its nuclear program that could potentially support the development of a nuclear weapon. Iran is encasing a newly built facility at Taleghan 2 at the Parchin Military Complex with a concrete “sarcophagus” to harden the facility against potential airstrikes, according to the Institute for Science and International Security. [17] Iran previously used Taleghan 2 to test explosives that are needed to detonate a nuclear device before it suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003.[18] Iran's efforts to rebuild its nuclear facilities come as the 2026 National Defense Strategy noted that the Iranian regime has “left open the possibility that [it] will try again to obtain a nuclear weapon.”[19]
Iran likely seeks Chinese support to strengthen its domestic security and repressive capabilities, which signals the regime's continued concern about renewed unrest. AFGS-affiliated media reported that Law Enforcement Command (LEC) Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Radan met with the PRC ambassador to Iran in Tehran on January 29 to finalize a security memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the LEC and the PRC's Public Security Ministry.[20] The LEC serves as Iran's primary internal security force and acts as the regime's first line of defense against unrest. The MoU aims to strengthen bilateral cooperation between the two institutions on public and political security.[21] Iran has repeatedly sought Chinese assistance to expand its domestic repression apparatus. The US Department of Justice announced in February 2020 that the Chinese company Huawei has supported Iran's domestic surveillance efforts since at least the 2009 Green Movement protests.[22] Radan met with Chinese Public Security Minister Wang Xiaohong in 2023 and 2024 and signed a law enforcement cooperation MoU during their 2024 meeting.[23] CTP previously assessed that Iran also likely modeled its digital authoritarian practices on the Chinese Communist Party's approach to social control.[24] The Iranian regime imposed a nationwide internet shutdown on January 8 to conceal its unprecedentedly brutal crackdown on protests and prevent Iranians from being able to organize protests.[25] The regime has sustained its extreme securitization efforts, which reflects its concerns over renewed protests.[26]
Iranian Artesh Commander Major General Amir Hatami announced the allocation of 1,000 drones to the Artesh’s four service branches on January 29.[38] Iranian media reported that the drones include reconnaissance and electronic warfare drones designed to target fixed and mobile objects on land, in the air, and at sea.[39] Hatami claimed that the Artesh will continue to enhance its “strategic advantages” to enable rapid combat operations and to respond to “any aggressor.”[40] Israel previously intercepted around 99.99 percent of Iranian drones during the June 2025 Israel-Iran War.[41] Iranian drones could be more effective in different circumstances, such as shorter-range shore-to-sea attacks, however.
The European Union designated the IRGC as a terrorist organization on January 29.[42] This designation requires the European Union to “ensure that funds, financial assets or economic resources…will not be made available, directly or indirectly” to the IRGC.[43] The European Union also sanctioned 15 Iranian individuals and six entities on January 29 for their involvement in the regime's brutal crackdown on protesters.[44] The sanctioned individuals include Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni, Prosecutor General Mohammad Movahedi Azad, as well as several IRGC commanders and senior LEC officers. The sanctioned entities include companies involved in the regime's censorship and misinformation efforts.[45]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-january-29-2026/
“The European Union designated the IRGC as a terrorist organization “
Is Larijani on their list?
The fear in Iran is that If/when Khamenei is gone (killed, dies, whatever) that IRGC will take over totally. They will appease the people by freeing up dress codes, etc. But the country will be run basically by a military junta. That isn’t going to help the people at all. And it won’t make Iran less dangerous to the rest of the world.
Iran has shown little willingness to concede to US demands on the missile program, regional proxy network, and nuclear capabilities. These three items form the long-standing pillars of Iranian defense strategy, and changing them would require a long strategic rethink in Tehran. The United States and Iran are in talks to attempt to avert US military action against Iran. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated in a press conference in Istanbul on January 30 that the Iranian regime is ready to resume talks with the United States if negotiations are “fair and equitable,” but it will not be bullied into negotiations nor give up its missiles and defense capabilities.[1] This comes as the United States recently relayed its demands for a deal to Iran.[2] Three of these demands, which the United States proposed to Iran in the first round of nuclear negotiations in early 2025, require Iran to halt its missile and nuclear programs and its support for regional proxies. Iranian officials do not believe that conceding to these demands would resolve US-Iran tensions, even if they decided to accept the demands, according to a political analyst close to the regime on January 22.[3] The same analyst, along with an Iranian political scientist, confirmed on January 22 and 23 that the United States introduced a fourth demand: Iran's recognition of the State of Israel, a condition that is entirely antithetical to the beliefs of the Islamic Republic under Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the ideology he espouses.[4] Iranian officials have demonstrated an unwillingness to concede on any of these US demands, even amid several diplomatic meetings Araghchi and President Masoud Pezeshkian held with intermediary countries on January 30 to encourage them to convince the United States to not conduct military action against Iran.[5]
Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary (SNSC) Ali Larijani met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on January 30 to discuss current developments and bilateral economic ties, according to Iranian and Russian media.[6] Larijani’s visit to Russia comes amid a flurry of diplomatic efforts by Iranian officials to avert US military action against Iran.[7] Larijani leads Iran's highest national security decision-making body and played a central role in orchestrating the regime's brutal protest crackdown in December 2025 and January 2026, for which the US Treasury sanctioned Larijani on January 15.[8]
The US Treasury Department sanctioned additional Iranian officials on January 30 for the regime's violent protest crackdown.[78] The United States sanctioned Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Intelligence Organization head Majid Khademi.[79] Momeni oversees the Law Enforcement Command (LEC), which played a significant role in the regime's violent crackdown on protesters.[80] The United States also sanctioned the IRGC commanders responsible for Tehran, Gilan, and Hamdan provinces and the LEC’s Kermanshah Province commander.[81] The US Treasury Department stated that security forces in Gilan Province killed “hundreds of demonstrators” and fired live ammunition at unarmed activists.[82] Treasury added that the number of demonstrators killed in Tehran Province “overwhelmed local medical services.”[83] The United States also sanctioned prominent “businessman and sanctions evader” Babak Zanjani and two digital asset exchanges associated with him for processing funds linked to the IRGC.[84] The US Treasury Department previously sanctioned the ”architects of the Iranian regime's brutal crackdown on peaceful demonstrators” on January 15, which included Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) head Ali Larijani, who was ”responsible for coordinating the response to the protests on behalf of the Supreme Leader of Iran.”[85]
The Institute for Science and International Security assessed on January 29 that Iran is trying to fortify the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC) in preparation for possible US strikes.[86] The Institute reported on January 29 that increased vehicle activity on the road leading to the tunnel entrances of the ENTC.[87] The Institute assessed that the vehicle activity appears to be related to re-burying the middle and southernmost entrances with soil, which could indicate efforts to protect against future military strikes.[88] The Institute added that these efforts, in combination with efforts at the Mount Kolang Gaz La (Pickaxe Mountain) and Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant at the Natanz Nuclear Facility, indicate that Iran has prioritized ”recovering and preserving assets related to uranium enrichment rather than uranium conversion.”[89]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-january-30-2026/