The Iranian regime has expanded its crackdown beyond protesters by targeting merchants and businesses that supported the protests, which risks exacerbating tensions between the regime and a part of the Iranian population that the regime has long relied on for support. Merchants in Tehran began protesting on December 28, 2025, in response to worsening economic conditions and the rapid devaluation of the Iranian rial.[62] Shopkeepers and merchants across Iran subsequently went on strike in support of the protests.[63] Engaging in economic strikes is typically less dangerous than participating in protests, given that security forces are less likely to violently confront business owners who go on strike but do not participate in protests. The Tehran Prosecutor's Office announced on January 20 that it has opened cases against 60 businesses that directly or indirectly supported calls for protests on January 8 and 9.[64] Tehran Prosecutor Ali Salehi previously signaled a hardline judicial approach to the protests, dismissing US President Donald Trump's statements about canceled executions as “baseless nonsense” and emphasizing that the judiciary's response to protesters will be “decisive, deterrent, and swift.”[65] Iranian Supreme Court Head Mohammad Jafar Montazeri similarly stated on January 20 that the judiciary must file “special cases” against individuals who incited “riots,” including individuals who closed their shops or stopped conducting business during the protests.[66] Anti-regime media separately reported on January 19 that the regime has frozen the bank accounts of several business owners who went on strike in Esfahan Province.[67] Iranian authorities also arrested and seized the assets of Mohammad Saedinia, who is the owner of a popular cafe chain in Qom Province, on January 13 for “inciting unrest” after he joined the national strike.[68] Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated media claimed on January 19 that the value of Saedinia’s assets “is almost equal to the financial damage caused” by protesters in Tehran.[69] The Iranian regime has previously arrested and threatened to execute merchants who went on strike during past protest waves in order to stop protest activity.[70] The regime's current crackdown on merchants will likely exacerbate the grievances of the demographic that initiated the current protest movement, particularly as the regime has not signaled any willingness or intention to implement fundamental economic reforms to address the underlying issues that plague the Iranian economy.
The Iranian regime has threatened to attack US strategic assets in the Middle East if the United States strikes Iran, very likely to try to deter any US action against the regime. Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS)-affiliated outlet Defa Press listed on January 20 several US bases in the Middle East that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force could target.[71] Defa Press claimed that the IRGC Aerospace Force could target these bases with Fateh-110 and Khalij-e Fars missiles and Shahed, Arash, and Hadid 110 drones.[72] Iran previously attacked al Udeid Airbase in Qatar during the June 2025 Israel-Iran War.[73] AFGS Cultural Deputy Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi separately warned on January 20 that Iran would respond to any attempt to harm Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei with a strong retaliation.[74] These threats came after an adviser to Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf suggested on January 19 that Iran did not use its maximum capabilities during the Israel-Iran War because the regime was anticipating a larger conflict in the future.[75]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-january-20-2026/
Some Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) elements do not approve of the regime's internet shutdown. An IRGC-affiliated Telegram channel said that the Iranian regime's decision to maintain the internet shutdown is counterproductive to Iran's “national security interest” because the shutdown has fueled public resentment.[58] The account is run by IRGC “fans,” so it is likely not speaking directly for IRGC commanders but may be speaking on behalf of some IRGC elements. Iranians have had some access to some domestic sites and messaging platforms for the past few days, according to a regime cybersecurity spokesperson. The IRGC-affiliated Telegram channel highlighted on January 20 how this limited access is not enough to resolve the shutdown's negative economic impact on the Iranian “digital middle class.”[59] A Tehran shopkeeper separately told Western media on January 20 that their business had gone down by 90 percent because of the internet shutdown and the protests, and noted that the limited internet access has not alleviated these effects.[60] Iranian Internet monitor NetBlocks estimates that the country-wide internet shutdowns cost over $37 million USD per day.[61] The Telegram channel's concern is consistent with CTP-ISW’s independent and ongoing assessment that the regime is unlikely to address the underlying economic factors that triggered the recent protest movement and is rather fueling these economic drivers, which makes it possible that protests could resume.[62]
This is not the first time that this Telegram channel has criticized the regime's internet shutdown. CTP-ISW observed that the channel published and then quickly removed a message on January 19, which criticized the Iranian government for the mixed signals it has given on lifting internet restrictions.[63] The channel's January 19 post voiced an opinion that contradicts the regime's official position.[64] Regime officials previously announced that it would ”gradually” lift the internet shutdown when, in reality, the regime's plan will make international internet and messaging platforms only accessible to vetted and trusted individuals.[65] Regime officials have also given different information on the plan‘s timeline, with some officials stating that the regime is implementing this plan and others stating that the internet would not be restored until the end of the 40-day mourning period.[66] It is unclear why the Telegram channel deleted its first post criticizing the regime, but later posted and did not delete a similar critique. The Telegram channel may have felt more comfortable publishing criticism of the regime‘s internet shutdown on January 21 compared to January 19, or Iran's deteriorating socio-economic situation may have reached a point that IRGC elements felt obliged to speak out. These two conclusions are not mutually exclusive.
The IRGC-affiliated Telegram channel's criticism of the regime's internet shutdown could be an indication of the IRGC’s parochial economic interests in restoring the internet. The internet shutdown has almost certainly disproportionately affected the regime's security apparatus and the IRGC writ large since their commercial and business work relies heavily on having access to international websites.[67] The IRGC is heavily involved in the Iranian economy. The regime's plan to relax the internet shutdown allows regime members to access the internet, but would not allow most Iranians to access the internet. This plan indicates that the regime seeks to allow regime insiders to benefit from internet access while still being able to control the narrative within Iran and use repressive measures despite the shutdown's economic costs for the average Iranian.[68]
The Iranian regime reportedly acknowledged on January 20 the first reported Artesh casualty of the recent protests. The Artesh is Iran's conventional military, in contrast to the IRGC, which is an ideological institution. US-based human rights activists reported on January 20 that Iranian regime-linked outlets stated that First Lieutenant Amin Salimi was shot and killed “while on mission” in Khavaran neighborhood, eastern Tehran, on January 10, which is when protests peaked.[69] The regime did not provide any details about Salimi‘s assignment, which makes it unclear what role he might have played in the protests. Salimi’s collar insignia indicates that he served in an Artesh electronic warfare unit, though the regime could have digitally altered the collar insignia. An Artesh electronic warfare unit would probably be responsible for supporting communications disruption efforts, including internet shutdown.[70] The Artesh previously issued a statement on January 10 in which it vowed to protect national interests, strategic infrastructure, and public property.[71] Artesh Commander Major General Amir Hatami also noted on January 14 that security forces, including the Law Enforcement Command, Basij, and Artesh, ”neutralized the enemy‘s plot“ during the protests.[72]
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi intentionally obscured the violent reality of the regime's crackdown on protests, in which the regime killed thousands of protesters and arrested thousands more, in a January 20 op-ed in the Wall Street Journal.[73]Araghchi may have also published this op-ed in an attempt to dissuade the United States from taking any punitive actions against the regime. Araghchi reiterated the regime's talking point that the protests began peacefully but that ”foreign and domestic terrorist[s]” then attacked police officers and civilians.[74] Araghchi claimed that the regime had to respond to the ”terrorists” to protect its citizens facing ”horrors.”[75] There is substantial evidence that the regime killed civilians intentionally, and many eyewitnesses have reported that the government forces indiscriminately fired into crowds of protesters.[76] The regime has engaged in an unprecedented level of brutality against the protesters, with death toll estimates ranging from 2,000 to 20,000 dead and around 19,000 arrested.[77] The regime also instituted a nationwide internet shutdown, which suggests that it was trying to hide its brutal crackdown on protesters.[78] A regime trying to argue that ”terrorists” caused the killing would presumably want footage of the ”terrorists” broadcast to the world. Araghchi blamed ”Israel and its proxies in the White House” for causing the protests and for trying to provoke the United States into striking Iran.[79]
The Iranian regime continues to conduct counterterrorism operations in southeastern Iran, where it faces internal threats from anti-regime armed groups. The Iranian Intelligence Ministry announced on January 21 that IRGC Quds Headquarters and Law Enforcement Command (LEC) officers killed a leader of Ansar al Furqan (a Salafi-jihadi group linked to al Qaeda) and arrested 11 members of the group in three joint operations near Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province.[80] The Ministry claimed that the fighters were preparing to conduct ”terrorist operations.”[81] The Iranian security forces also seized a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG), two Kalashnikov rifles, six pistols, improvised explosive device (IED) equipment, and ammunition.[82] Ansar al Furqan spokesperson Nasrallah Baloch denied on January 21 that the Iranian regime arrested its fighters and killed one of its leaders, adding that the group is “prepared to punish” the regime.[83] Ansar al Furqan has previously conducted attacks targeting Iranian security forces, such as its December 16 attack on an Iranian checkpoint in Kerman Province that killed at least 16 Iranian intelligence and LEC personnel.[84]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-january-21-2026/