Iran Update, January 18, 2026
Elements of the Iranian regime leaked information about purported plans to moderate regime behavior domestically and internationally.[1] The leak is likely meant to dissuade the United States from attacking Iran in response to the brutal regime crackdown on protests. A former regime official close to Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani told an English-language diaspora outlet that Larijani is pushing to moderate regime policies and conduct major economic and social reforms.[2] The source alleged that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei backs Larijani in that effort.[3] The source added that Larijani’s success depends on the United States and Israel, implying that attacks on Iran would disrupt efforts to moderate and reform.[4] The leakers likely seek to portray the regime as rehabilitating itself and to imply that attacking the regime would be counterproductive.
Serious regime moderation depends entirely on Supreme Leader Khamenei, however, who has continued to signal his commitment to the hardline positions that he has maintained for decades. Khamenei gave a speech on January 17 during which he reiterated his uncompromising stance toward the protests, labeling them as foreign agents and terrorists.[5] Khamenei also emphasized the need to improve the economy but articulated no novel thoughts on how to do so.[6] Khamenei would have a strong incentive to debut major reforms if he were seriously considering them. That he did not raise doubt about the extent to which Khamenei supports reforms and, in fact, indicates that he will more likely retain his previously held hardline views.
The leakers separately tried to validate relatively moderate regime figures and frame them as influential voices.[7] The leakers claimed that Khamenei and Larijani enthusiastically support Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi. That selective disclosure of information is likely meant to empower Araghchi, especially before foreign officials who doubt the extent to which he speaks with serious authority. The leakers further tried to connect Larijani and Araghchi to former moderate President Hassan Rouhani and his foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, to reinforce the idea that the band of pragmatic leaders is resurgent in Iran.
The portrayal of Larijani as a pragmatic reformer clashes with his record as SNSC secretary. Larijani has overseen the most brutal crackdown that the regime has ever conducted, which the leakers acknowledged and likened to the Tiananmen Square massacre.[8] The extent of the crackdown has become clearer, as more information has become available. An unspecified Iranian official told Reuters that at least 5,000 people had died, including 500 security officers.[9] The actual death count could be significantly higher, however. Iranian doctors using Starlink told The Times that around 16,500 protesters had died and around 330,000 were injured.[10] This is consistent with an Iranian cultural activist who described the circumstances as “urban warfare.”[11]
The regime is conducting a large-scale arrest campaign following the protests and signaling its plans to execute some of the arrested. The Iranian intelligence apparatus has announced hundreds of arrests across the country in recent days.[12] Judiciary spokesperson Ashagr Jahangir announced that the Judiciary will quickly hand out sentences tantamount to moharebeh — enmity against God — that carry the charge of the death penalty and “deterrent punishments that we will soon witness.”[13] Supreme Court Head Mohammad Jafar Montazeri stated that the Supreme Court is prioritizing “terrorist and rioting” cases and “no slightest leniency.”[14]
The regime is continuing and increasing its oppression against the Iranian public in order to prevent any protest activity, even short of going out to the street, which indicates the regime believes that the threat it faced from this protest wave has not passed. Tehran residents told the Wall Street Journal on January 18 that Basij members have patrolled Tehran’s streets on motorbikes in recent days, with some shouting, “Don’t come out! We’ll shoot you!”[15] The Basij also warned residents to stay away from the windows.[16] Those Basij may belong to the elite Imam Ali battalions, which are an elite, anti-riot force that is known for its common use of motorbikes for crowd control and intimidation. The regime most likely does not want protesters chanting anti-regime slogans from the window as an alternative to protesting on the street, which could maintain the protests’ momentum, especially because the regime has continued to claim that the protests are over.[17] The pervasive security presence is preventing protesters from coming into the streets–rather than the citizens’ lack of desire to protest the regime.
The Iranian regime has allowed Iranians access to domestic websites on the internet as part of the phase planned to resume internet access. The regime shut down the internet in response to the protests on January 8.[18] The Iranian regime began its gradual plan to lift internet restrictions on January 18, with users reporting the return of access to search engines, such as Google, but only with access to Iranian websites.[19] Ordinary internet connectivity in Iran remained disrupted on January 18, however.[20] Iranian state media reported on January 18 that users had access to local messaging platforms.[21]
Iranian state media acknowledged that there were some dissenting voices over the internet shutdown when it was first implemented on January 8.[22] IranCell Communications Services Company’s Board of Directors replaced Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Alireza Rafiei, who had been in the position for a year, with Mohammad Hossein Soleimani on January 18.[23] Iranian state media reported that the reason for the change was that the operator had violated the regime-imposed internet and communications shutdown on January 8, which facilitated the protests, according to unspecified sources.[24]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-january-18-2026/
Iran Update, January 19, 2026
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei have rhetorically favored leniency toward protesters but continue to support the regime's normal hardline approach to protesters, including executions. Pezeshkian, Ghalibaf, and Ejei called for “Islamic compassion and leniency to those who were deceived and did not play a major role in terrorist incidents” in a joint statement on January 19.[25] This statement notably does not say that all protesters should be pardoned and continues to refer to protests as “terrorist incidents,” echoing the regime's characterization of protesters as “seditionists” and “foreign-backed armed terrorists.”[26] The Judiciary announced that it will hand out sentences tantamount to moharabeh—enmity against God—that carry the charge of the death penalty for protesters deemed to be ”terrorists.”[27] The regime has historically responded to wide-scale anti-regime protests with mass arbitrary arrests, sentencing some protesters to death or life imprisonment while informally releasing others or freeing them through Khamenei’s pardons.[28] A US-based human rights organization reported that Iranian security forces have arrested at least 24,669 people as of January 19.[29] The regime cannot detain nearly 25,000 people and will almost certainly have to release thousands, issue life sentences, and execute others. Khamenei pardoned more than 22,000 detainees, and the Judiciary sentenced at least 25 protesters to death and executed at least seven protesters after the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests.[30] It is unsurprising that Pezeshkian, Ghalibaf, and Ejei signaled ”leniency” toward some protesters, since many would likely be released or pardoned under the regime's standard crackdown policy. The joint statement signals support for the regime's plans to execute some protesters by affirming the regime narrative that some protesters are responsible for terrorist acts. The regime has yet to publicly execute protesters from the January 2026 protests, but a human rights organization reported that regime jailers have committed lethal abuse at the detention centers.[31]
The regime will likely continue its internet shutdown despite indications that Pezeshkian and members of his administration may support lifting restrictions on the internet. Pezeshkian advised Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani on January 18 to lift internet and communications restrictions to facilitate online business.[32] Science, Technology, and Knowledge-Based Economy Vice President Hossein Afshin stated on January 19 that internet access is expected to be restored ”today, tomorrow, or by the end of the week.”[33] Afshin added that authorities may grant fixed IP access to large companies if disruptions continue, but emphasized that this would not entirely address the challenges facing the digital economy.[34] The Pezeshkian administration may seek to restore internet access because it recognizes the economic toll that sustaining the internet shutdown has on the Iranian economy. Internet monitor NetBlocks estimates that country-wide internet shutdowns cost over $1.5 million USD per hour.[35] The shutdown, however, enables the regime to hide the extent of its brutal protest crackdown from its people and the international community. The regime has signaled that it continues to believe that the threat it faced from this protest wave has not passed and, therefore, may be reticent to significantly ease internet restrictions in the near future if it continues to fear renewed large-scale protests.
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-january-19-2026/