Iran Update, December 23, 2025
Iranian regime entities continue to emphasize that Iran is prioritizing the expansion of its missile program to reestablish deterrence against Israel. An Iranian outlet affiliated with Ali Shamkhani, who is one of the Supreme Leader’s representatives to the Defense Council, reported on December 23 that Iran formed the Defense Council to restructure its defense strategy and restore deterrence through “hard power.”[23] Iran’s highest national security and foreign policy decision-making body, the Supreme National Security Council, established the Defense Council following the Israel-Iran War.[24] The outlet stated that the Defense Council’s most significant achievement since the war has been the reconstruction and improvement of Iran’s defense capabilities, most likely referring to Iran’s missile and air defense capabilities.[25] A political analyst close to former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander and Expediency Discernment Council member Mohsen Rezaei confirmed on December 23 that Iran recently conducted a missile exercise.[26] Najafi stated that the missile exercise and recent threats from Iranian officials are part of an effort “to restore deterrence” ahead of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to the United States.[27] Western media recently reported that Netanyahu will brief US President Donald Trump on options to strike Iranian ballistic missile sites during his visit to the United States.[28] Iran has taken concrete steps since the war to rebuild its missile program, including reconstructing infrastructure at at least two missile bases.[29] Iran has also imported a chemical precursor for solid missile fuel and attempted to obtain fuel mixers from the People’s Republic of China.[30] Iran has historically prioritized missile development as a deterrent against potential Israeli attacks.[31] CTP-ISW previously assessed that this approach is deeply embedded in Iranian military doctrine and is unlikely to change in the near future.[32]
The outlet affiliated with Shamkhani separately called on the regime to develop a mechanism for “strategic information dissemination” to manage popular perceptions and retain public trust during periods of conflict.[33] The outlet argued that narrative warfare and psychological operations have become an “inseparable part” of modern conflicts and called on the regime to strengthen its “narrative management” in addition to its “hard power.”[34] The outlet’s call for “strategic information dissemination” is consistent with Iranian officials’ belief that Israel sought to use psychological operations during the Israel-Iran War to degrade Iranian national unity and overthrow the Iranian regime.[35] The regime may believe that increasing its control over media narratives and increasing the dissemination of regime propaganda are necessary to counter such psychological operations and protect Iranian internal security in future conflicts with Israel.
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-december-23-2025/
The Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) reported on December 24 that unspecified sources in Tehran told ISPI that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei authorized the initial development of miniaturized nuclear warheads for ballistic missiles in October 2025.[1] ISPI is the only source that has reported information about the supreme leader authorizing the development of miniaturized nuclear warheads.[2] This source has not previously offered in-depth analysis of or verifiable information about the Iranian nuclear program. ISPI reported that Khamenei did not authorize uranium enrichment beyond 60 percent, however.[3] ISPI noted that producing deliverable, miniaturized nuclear warheads poses significant technical challenges and requires weapons-grade uranium enriched to 90 percent, which Iran does not currently possess.[4]
Iran has previously explored alternative nuclear weapon paths that do not require warhead miniaturization. The New York Times reported in February 2025 that a “secret team” of Iranian weapons engineers and scientists is “exploring” a faster approach to building a nuclear weapon in a “matter of months.”[5] Unspecified US officials told the New York Times that Iran could build an “older-style nuclear weapon” using the new approach, but noted that such a weapon would not fit on a ballistic missile and would likely be less reliable than a modern weapon.[6]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-december-24-2025/