Iran Update, November 13, 2025
Iranian media outlets circulated a video on November 13 that purportedly shows Iranian pilots training with Russian fifth-generation Su-57 fighter jets in Russia. This video is not a strong indicator that Russia intends to supply aircraft to Iran at this time.[34] The pilots in the video compared the fighter jet’s flight to the performance of a US F-4 Phantom II fighter jet, which Iran acquired prior to the 1979 Islamic Revolution.[35] CTP-ISW has not observed indicators that Russia has adjusted its ability or willingness to supply Iran with fighter jets or material of any kind at this time, however. Russia is unlikely to provide Iran with new and high-tech equipment at a time when it is facing a materiel shortage in its war in Ukraine. Russia announced in 2019 that it would aim to procure 76 Su-57s by 2028.[36] A Ukraine-based open-source intelligence organization reported in August 2025 that the Russian Defense Ministry has struggled to procure Su-57 since 2021.[37] Russia reportedly had very few Su-57s in service in June 2024 and used the planes that it did have as launch vehicles for Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, according to Ukrainian intelligence.[38] Russia has yet to supply Iran with 4.5-generation Su-35 fighter jets that Iran reportedly bought in January 2025.[39]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-november-13-2025/
Iran Update, November 14, 2025
Three small Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) vessels intercepted a Marshall Islands-flagged oil products tanker, Talara, and moved it into Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz on November 14.[1] The vessel is operated by Cyprus-based, German- and British-owned Columbia Ship Management. The vessel is owned by Pasha Finance, which allegedly has familial ties to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.[2] The vessel was headed to Singapore from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and was carrying a cargo of high-sulfur gas oil.[3] Iranian naval forces intercepted the vessel on early Friday morning and diverted it into Iranian territorial waters.[4] Columbia Ship Management stated that it lost contact with the vessel around 0822 local time near the coast of Khor Fakkan, United Arab Emirates. The IRGC issued a statement on X on November 14, quoting a Quranic verse: “So whoever has assaulted you, then assault him in the same way that he has assaulted you,” suggesting that Iran is retaliating for a previous incident.[5]
Iran has conducted several inspections of naval units in the Persian Gulf since the June 2025 Israel-Iran War due to concerns that the United States and its allies could seize Iranian vessels. Senior Iranian IRGC and Artesh commanders inspected naval facilities at least seven times between June and November 2025 — most recently on November 11 — to evaluate combat readiness.[6] Iranian officials have warned in October 2025 that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz if the international community blocks Iranian oil exports, Iran’s most profitable export.[7] Several senior Iranian officials have touted Iranian naval capabilities and their destructive and deterrent effect towards Iran‘s adversaries in recent statements.[8]
ISW-CTP is considering the following three hypotheses about Iran’s objectives in seizing the vessel:
Iran may be seeking retaliation for the potential attack on the LPG tanker MV Falcon, which caught on fire after an unspecified explosion near Aden, Yemen, on October 18.[9] The non-profit United Against Nuclear Iran reported that the Falcon was an Iranian shadow fleet vessel that transports illicit Iranian oil.[10] The IRGC quoted a Quranic verse on X on November 14 that implied that the IRGC was attempting to retaliate for an earlier incident. Iran may have viewed the Falcon incident as an intentional attack and is attempting to deter any actors responsible for it.
Iran may be showing its willingness to close off the Strait of Hormuz as a preemptive measure amid Iranian concerns about future US actions. Iranian officials have warned that Iran is willing to close the Strait of Hormuz if the international community blocks Iranian oil exports and have inspected naval facilities along the coast to confirm force capabilities and readiness.[11]
Iran may be demonstrating its power to actors, such as Azerbaijan and Saudi Arabia. Both countries have recently taken steps to increase cooperation with Iranian adversaries. Israel and Azerbaijan have held several meetings in 2025 to discuss bilateral cooperation and Azerbaijan’s inclusion in the Abraham Accords.[12] Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly plans to discuss a defense agreement with the United States during his visit to Washington next week.[13] The Saudi-US defense agreement would be similar to the recently signed Qatar-US agreement that pledged the United States to treat any armed attack on Qatari soil as an attack on the United States. Iran may be showing its ability to disrupt movements across the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz if it perceives any future threats from its adversaries.
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-november-14-2025/