[AdmSmith]

Iran Update, August 15, 2025

Iranian Supreme Leader International Affairs Adviser Ali Akbar Velayati emphasized Iranian support for the Houthis during a meeting with the Houthi representative to Iran on August 14. Velayati denied that the Axis of Resistance has weakened and underlined the Houthis’ pivotal role in the Axis of Resistance’s war against Israel in a meeting with Houthi Representative to Iran Ibrahim al Dailami.[10] The Houthis are the only Axis of Resistance member that still regularly conducts attacks targeting Israel. The Houthis also continue to threaten international shipping.[11] Velayati separately criticized US pressure to disarm Lebanese Hezbollah and the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq.[12] This meeting comes after Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani reaffirmed Iranian support for the Axis of Resistance during his visits to Iraq and Lebanon between August 11 and 14.[13]

The Iranian, Chinese, and Russian permanent representatives to the UN met in Vienna on August 14, likely to continue coordinating diplomatic efforts in response to the E3’s (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) warning that it may trigger the snapback mechanism by the end of August.[32] Russian Permanent Representative to the UN Mikhail Ulyanov stated that the three officials coordinated “their positions and actions on the Iranian nuclear dossier.”[33] This meeting comes after the E3 warned on August 13 that it would trigger the snapback mechanism unless Iran shows a commitment to negotiations before August 31.[34] The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) snapback mechanism allows JCPOA signatories to reimpose UN Security Council sanctions on Iran in the event of “significant non-performance” of JCPOA commitments.[35] The snapback mechanism expires on October 18, 2025.[36] CTP-ISW previously assessed that it is unlikely that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia could prevent the reimposition of UN Security Council sanctions on Iran if the E3 triggers the snapback mechanism.[37]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-15-2025

[AdmSmith]

Iran Update, August 18, 2025

The Iranian Reformist Front issued a statement on August 17 that called for political reforms and foreign policy shifts, which highlights how reformists in the Iranian regime may feel emboldened in the post-war environment to call for change.[36] The statement warned that Iran's fragile economy and potential E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) snapback sanctions could cause Iran to enter a deeper economic crisis.[37] The Reformist Front outlined eleven demands, including lifting restrictions on reformist leaders, freeing political prisoners, excluding the armed forces from non-military fields, allowing free elections, reforming women's rights laws, lifting censorship, and suspending uranium enrichment under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) oversight in exchange for sanctions relief.[38] Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated Tasnim News Agency condemned the statement on August 18, criticizing the Reformist Front's call to suspend uranium enrichment and accusing reformists of pursuing policies that weaken Iran in favor of Iran's adversaries.[39] The Reformist Front statement comes after former President Hassan Rouhani urged the regime on August 13 to implement reforms, ease tensions with the West, and limit the Iranian armed forces’ involvement in politics and the economy.[40] Rouhani framed the post-war period as an opportunity to restore public trust and recalibrate Iran's trajectory.[41] The emergence of reformist and moderate elements in the Iranian regime likely reflects a political opening created by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s absence from the public view and the loss of hardliner leadership during the Israel-Iran War.[42]

Iranian security forces raided a house near Enghelab Square in central Tehran on August 17, where unspecified individuals were reportedly constructing drones for Mossad.[43] Iranian security forces seized several drones during the raid [44] This incident highlights Iranian officials’ heightened concern about Israeli infiltration following the Israel-Iran War.[45] Israel clandestinely built a one-way attack drone base in Iran that it used to strike Iranian ballistic missile launchers at the beginning of the war.[46] This operation hindered Iran's ability to immediately respond to Israel.[47]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-18-2025