IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, NOVEMBER 30
Protest activity may increase on December 5-7.
The recent calls for protests may highlight the increasing organization and sophistication of the protest movement as well as some fractures.
Anti-regime outlet Iran International published a purportedly internal regime memo discussing the protests.
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani met with US-sanctioned Astan Quds Razavi (AQR) Custodian Ahmad Marvi in Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province, possibly to discuss commercial or financial cooperation.
At least nine protests took place in seven cities across six provinces.
An Intelligence and Security Ministry member died due to an unspecified cause in Zabol, Sistan and Baluchistan Province.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-november-30
Rise in Iranian assassination, kidnapping plots alarms Western officials by Shane Harris, Souad Mekhennet and Yeganeh Torbati
The Iranian government has stepped up its efforts to kidnap and kill government officials, activists and journalists around the world, including in the United States, according to government documents and interviews with 15 officials in Washington, Europe and the Middle East, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information.
Tehran has targeted former senior U.S. government officials; dissidents who have fled the country for the United States, Britain, Canada, Turkey and Europe; media organizations critical of the regime; and Jewish civilians or those with links to Israel, according to the officials and government documents.
Iran’s intelligence and security services rely largely on proxies to carry out their plans, offering hundreds of thousands of dollars to jewel thieves, drug dealers and other criminals in murder-for-hire schemes, the officials said. That hands-off approach probably caused some operations to fail, the officials said, as plots have been disrupted — and, in some cases, the hired hit men appear to have gotten cold feet and never carried out their orders.
But officials say Iran’s persistence makes it likely to eventually carry out the killing of a high-profile dissident, journalist or Western government figure, and that could spark direct confrontation with Tehran.
Iran’s security services have carried out lethal operations abroad since the regime took power four decades ago, officials said. More recently, they said, between 2015 and 2017, Tehran is believed to have killed at least three dissidents in Western Europe, including an Iranian Arab activist who was gunned down in front of his home in The Hague.
IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, DECEMBER 1
Protesters in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province rhetorically defended prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid against the regime.
The Raisi administration may be conducting a purge of local officials across Iran to install more loyal cadres.
At least five protests took place in four cities across four provinces.
Neighborhood youth groups disseminated instructions on how to prevent state security services from collecting intelligence on protesters in preparation for the planned protests on December 5-7.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-december-1