Iran Update, July 25, 2025
Iran and the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) reportedly discussed extending the snapback mechanism deadline during a meeting on July 25.[15] CTP-ISW previously assessed that postponing the snapback deadline would very likely not change Iran’s position on the key issue of domestic uranium enrichment.[16] Iranian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Political Affairs Majid Takht Ravanchi and Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi met with E3 officials in Istanbul on July 25 to discuss the Iranian nuclear program and potential snapback sanctions.[17] Ravanchi and Gharibabadi previously led Iran’s technical team in the US-Iran nuclear negotiations in April and May 2025.[18] A Wall Street Journal correspondent reported on July 25 that Iran and the E3 discussed extending the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) snapback mechanism to reimpose UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions on Iran.[19] The mechanism expires in October 2025. An extension would require a new UNSC resolution with at least nine votes in favor of the resolution and no vetoes from permanent UNSC members. Iran reportedly did not explicitly reject the idea of extending the deadline.[20] The Financial Times reported on July 24 that the E3 is prepared to extend the snapback deadline if Iran agrees to resume talks with the United States and cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).[21] Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei dismissed recent reports that the E3 may seek to extend the snapback deadline as “baseless and meaningless.”[22] Iran is very unlikely to accept any deal that requires zero uranium enrichment, even if the E3 extends the snapback deadline to provide Iran more time to reach a deal with the United States. Senior Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have repeatedly stated that domestic enrichment is non-negotiable.[23] Gharibabadi stated that Iran and the E3 agreed to continue talks.[24]
Moderate and pragmatic elements of the Iranian regime appear to be trying to reshape Iran’s domestic and foreign policy in the post-war period. These elements have increasingly sought to influence Iranian decision-making since the start of the Israel-Iran War. Reformist outlet Ensaf News claimed on July 25 that ultraconservatives have become marginalized and sidelined by all three branches of government as moderates and pragmatic conservatives seek to exert more political influence in the regime.[25] Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated on July 22 that the Iranian government is willing to engage in dialogue with the “opposition” and emphasized that solving problems requires dialogue, “not confrontation.”[26] Pezeshkian may have been referring to domestic opposition figures, including former Iranian Prime Minister and key 2009 Green Movement leader Mir Hossein Mousavi.[27] Mousavi called on July 11 for a referendum to establish a constitutional assembly as a “means to reclaim national sovereignty,” framing the current Iranian governance system as unrepresentative of the Iranian people.[28] Some traditional conservatives, including senior advisers to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei such as Ali Shamkhani and Ali Akbar Velayati, have publicly called on the regime to prioritize reconciliation in its domestic policy.[29] Shamkhani called on regime officials on June 28 to resolve “disputes” with the Iranian population through “mutual understanding.”[30] Velayati stated on July 21 that preserving national cohesion may require “revising social policies” and prioritizing public satisfaction.[31] He also warned that “outdated methods” no longer suit Iranian society.[32]
Iranian officials, including Pezeshkian and Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi, have attempted in recent weeks to reframe the regime’s image in Western media by downplaying the regime’s hardline policies and ideology. Pezeshkian falsely presented Iran as a peaceful force in the Middle East in an interview with Tucker Carlson on July 7.[33] Araghchi separately claimed in a July 22 interview with US media that Iran has never sought to destroy Israel.[34] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Pezeshkian and Araghchi leveraged these interviews with US media to misrepresent Iran’s policy toward the West to a Western audience.[35] This misrepresentation may also seek to distance the regime from rhetoric and confrontational policies pushed by ultraconservatives.[36] Ultraconservatives, including the Stability (Paydari) Front and some members of the Assembly of Experts, have supported hardline positions in recent weeks, including a senior cleric’s call for the killing of US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.[37]
Russia is continuing to support the development of the Iranian space program. Russia launched the Iranian Nahid-2 communications satellite into orbit on July 25 using the Russian Soyuz space launch vehicle (SLV).[38] The Iranian Space Research Center and Iranian Space Agency designed and developed the Nahid-2.[39] Russia has launched four Iranian-made satellites into orbit since 2022, including the Khayyam satellite in August 2022, the Pars-1 satellite in February 2024, and the Kowsar and Hodhod satellites in November 2024.[40] Russia’s launch of the Nahid-2 comes after Iran conducted a suborbital test of its Qased SLV on July 21.[41] Russia reportedly provides Iran with technical assistance for its SLV and missile programs.[42] Russian assistance with the SLV program is particularly significant given that this program could support the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM).[43]
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reiterated his call for national unity in a statement on July 25 commemorating the deaths of senior Iranian military commanders and nuclear scientists during the Israel-Iran War.[44] Khamenei acknowledged that the deaths of military commanders and nuclear scientists were a “heavy” loss for the regime but praised the “perseverance and stability” of regime institutions. Khamenei also praised the Iranian people’s “firm determination to stand united” during the war. Khamenei previously called for national unity in a speech on July 16.[45] Khamenei’s calls for unity come amid fissures between hardliners and pragmatic elements of the regime over the regime’s domestic and foreign policies.[46] Khamenei outlined seven recommendations for different parts of Iranian society and the regime in the post-war period. These recommendations include:
All elements of Iranian society should maintain national unity.
The “scientific elite” should accelerate scientific and technological advancements.
Iranian media and intellectuals should maintain Iran’s “honor and reputation.”
Military commanders should improve Iran’s ability to preserve national security and independence.
Government officials should pursue national goals with “seriousness.”
The clerical establishment should provide spiritual guidance and help Iranians remain “patient, calm, and steadfast.”
Iranian youth should maintain a revolutionary spirit.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-25-2025
Trump Halted Israeli Strikes Aimed at Toppling Iranian Regime
An Israeli source also told The Washington Post that the Israeli offensive delayed Iran’s nuclear program by one to two years, adding, ‘Iran is no longer a threshold nuclear state’
Israel planned to target regime targets to topple the Islamic Republic of Iran, but U.S. President Donald Trump halted the strikes by announcing a cease-fire, The Washington Post reported on Saturday, citing American and Israeli officials.
The officials told the Post’s senior military analyst, David Ignatius, that Trump approved the launch of Israel’s mid-June offensive on Iran, but made clear that he would only continue U.S. support if Israel’s progress met expectations. By the time Trump announced the cease-fire, Israeli forces were reportedly poised to hit senior regime targets.
Israeli officials told Ignatius that they believe that Iran was developing an electromagnetic pulse, or EMP, weapon designed to cripple Israel’s power and communications networks. These officials said that Iran was also researching the development of more complex nuclear bombs.