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Iran Update July 1, 2025

Iran is continuing to try to assess damage at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP). Commercially available satellite imagery captured on June 29 and 30 showed Iranian heavy equipment, including bulldozers and excavators, near two clusters of impact points at Fordow.[1] CTP-ISW previously reported that imagery from June 28 and 29 showed an excavator and crane near the northern impact points and an excavator near the southern impact points.[2] A US weapons expert assessed on June 30 that Iran may be preparing to send cameras or personnel into the craters to conduct a downhole damage assessment.[3] The expert noted that Iran will likely access the southern cluster of impact points first because US strikes made the ground around the northern impact points “highly unstable.” The expert stated that Iran is likely using a bulldozer at the southern impact points to prepare a platform for downhole access.[4] The expert added that Iran will likely lower cameras into the crater first and then personnel, depending on the site's safety.

Satellite imagery captured on July 1 indicates that Iran has at least partially filled the three southern impact points and covered one of the northern impact points with a temporary cover.[5] It is unclear why Iran would cover or fill the craters. A US weapons expert suggested that Iran may seek to prevent materials and personnel from falling into the craters while Iran conducts battle damage assessments around the site.[6] The expert noted that Iran would need to rebuild the ventilation shafts if it sought to resume operations at Fordow.[7]

Satellite imagery captured on July 1 also shows that Iran has cleared the surroundings of a tunnel entrance near the southern impact points to enable vehicle access to the tunnel.[8] It is unclear how far vehicles will be able to travel in the tunnel system.

Iranian nuclear safety regulators have reportedly stopped sharing information with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), according to two unspecified officials.[9] The IAEA’s Incident and Emergency Center had maintained contact with Iranian regulators since June 13, but two unspecified officials told Bloomberg on July 1 that Iran has stopped sharing information with the IAEA. This report comes after Iran's Guardian Council approved a bill on June 26 that suspends Iran's cooperation with the IAEA and bars inspectors from accessing Iran's nuclear facilities.[10] Iran has historically restricted IAEA oversight in Iran, including by withdrawing the certifications of several inspectors in September 2023 and barring other top inspectors in November 2024.[11] The IAEA has not conducted any inspections in Iran since the Israel-Iran War began.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-1-2025

1,443 posted on 07/02/2025 2:44:51 AM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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Iran Update, July 2, 2025

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly appointed Ali Abdollahi Ali Abadi as the new Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters Commander.[17] Ali Abadi had served as the Armed Forces General Staff coordination deputy since 2016.[18] Coordination deputies in Iran serve in a capacity similar to a chief of staff in the US military. Ali Abadi has held leadership roles in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and several internal security positions throughout his career.[19] Ali Abadi is originally from Gilan Province and commanded the IRGC Ground Forces 16th Quds Operational Division in the province. He also served as the governor of Gilan and Semnan provinces in northern Iran.[20] Ali Abadi later served as the Law Enforcement Command deputy chief and the Interior Ministry’s deputy minister for security and law enforcement. Ali Abadi’s appointment is consistent with CTP-ISW’s assessment that the Iranian regime is prioritizing regime security in the wake of the Israel-Iran War. The United States sanctioned Ali Abadi in January 2020 for advancing the regime’s “destabilizing objectives” and his involvement in the Iranian ballistic missile attack targeting US forces at Ain al Asad Airbase in Iraq in 2020.[21] Khamenei initially appointed former Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters Coordination Deputy Ali Shadmani to command the headquarters after Israeli strikes killed former Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters Commander Major General Gholam Ali Rashid.[22] Israeli airstrikes killed Shadmani on June 17.[23]

Western countries have maintained their positions on Iran’s nuclear program from before the Israel-Iran War. Iran has also not changed its position on uranium enrichment. The G7, which includes the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom, issued a joint statement on July 1 reaffirming their stance that Iran “can never have nuclear weapons.”[24] The G7 ministers urged Iran to refrain from reconstituting its “unjustified enrichment activities.”[25] The statement called on Iran to resume nuclear negotiations and full cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), including by providing verifiable information about nuclear material and granting access to nuclear sites.[26] This statement is consistent with previous G7 and E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) statements that emphasized that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.[27]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-2-2025


1,444 posted on 07/02/2025 11:20:02 PM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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