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Iran has likely begun to assess damage and conduct repair operations at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP). Commercially available satellite imagery captured on June 28 and 29 shows Iranian heavy equipment near two clusters of three impact points on ventilation shafts at FFEP that were caused by US GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs.[1] Imagery from June 29 shows an excavator and crane near the northern bunker-buster bomb impact points. Imagery from June 28 showed an excavator near the southern cluster of impact points. A US weapons expert assessed that Iran may be filling the craters and conducting engineering damage assessments and radiological sampling.[2] The US weapons expert also noted that two of the six GBU-57 impact points have been covered by square slabs.[3]
Satellite imagery also shows that Iran has created at least two new paths leading to the two clusters of impacts on the ventilation shafts. Vehicles are visible along the access roads that lead to the impact points. Israel struck access roads leading to FFEP on June 23 in order to “disrupt” access to the site.[4] These strikes may delay Iranian efforts to assess and repair damage at Fordow or move materials from the site to other locations.[5]
Iranian activity at Fordow follows possible repair operations at the Natanz Enrichment Complex.[6] Commercially available satellite imagery captured on June 27 showed that Iran filled a crater that was formed by US GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi said on June 27 that Iran could resume uranium enrichment within “a matter of months.”[7] Grossi stated that Iran could have at most “a few cascades of centrifuges spinning and producing enriched uranium” within months.[8] Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile reportedly “remains largely intact” following the US and Israeli strikes. CTP-ISW previously noted that the US and Israeli strikes on Fordow and other enrichment facilities could have buried enriched uranium underground to limit access to it, but could not have destroyed the material, given that uranium is an element. US and Israeli strikes targeted centrifuge production facilities and active centrifuges, damaging and destroying thousands of centrifuges.[9] The destruction of so many centrifuges will likely hamper Iran's ability to enrich uranium in the near future. Grossi stressed that Iran had a “vast ambitious [nuclear] program” and that nuclear expertise and industrial capacity remain in Iran despite Israel's decapitation campaign targeting nuclear scientists and US-Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities.[10]
Grossi also stressed that the IAEA needs to be allowed to resume its work in Iran. Iranian Second Deputy Parliament Speaker Hamidreza Haji Babaei announced on June 28 that Iran will no longer allow IAEA cameras in its nuclear facilities.[11] Babaei also said that Grossi is no longer permitted to visit Iran.[12] Iran's Guardian Council approved a bill on June 26 that suspends Iran's cooperation with the IAEA and bars inspectors from accessing Iran's nuclear facilities.[13] The bill requires Iran to suspend cooperation with the IAEA until the IAEA recognizes Iran's right to enrich uranium.[14] Iran has historically restricted IAEA oversight in Iran, including by withdrawing the certifications of several inspectors in September 2023 and barring other top inspectors in November 2024.[15]
Former moderate Iranian President Hassan Rouhani argued that Iran must restore deterrence and rebuild public trust with the Iranian people as part of a revitalized national strategy.[16] Rouhani said in a public statement on June 24 that Iran's losses in the recent Israel-Iran War should encourage the Iranian regime to “restore” and “reconstruct” Iran's national strategy.”[17] Rouhani also cited regional developments “over the past two years,” likely referring to the significant weakening of Iran's proxies and partners in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, and Syria since October 7, 2023.[18] Rouhani said that Iran must rebuild its “indigenous defense power” while also “listen[ing] to the people” and ”mak[ing] amends” with the Iranian population as part of this strategy.[19] Rouhani claimed that Israel and the United States attempted to weaken Iranian national solidarity and trust in the government.[20] Rouhani’s call for restoring trust with the Iranian people follows a similar call by Iranian Supreme Leader Adviser Ali Shamkhani on June 28. Shamkhani called on regime officials to resolve “disputes” with the Iranian population through “mutual understanding.”[21] Rouhani and Shamkhani’s statements come amid recent steps by the Iranian regime to securitize the country since the Iran-Israel ceasefire went into effect on June 24. Rouhani’s statement is also notable given recent reports that Rouhani may be attempting to use Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s absence to try to play a larger and more meaningful role in regime decision-making.[22] Moderate elements are typically sidelined by hardliners during normal times.
Iranian Armed Forces General Staff-affiliated outlet Defa Press published an article on June 29 expressing support for the purchase of Chinese fighter jets.[38] The article discussed Iranian Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Minister Brigadier General Aziz Nasir Zadeh’s recent visit to China on June 26 and 27 and commented on recent rumors about Iran trying to purchase Chinese fighter jets.[39] Defa Press argued that the Iranian Artesh Air Force “needs to employ up-to-date fighter jets” so that the Artesh Air Force can defend Iranian airspace and confront Iran's adversaries “more effectively.” The Israeli Air Force established air superiority over large parts of Iran during the Iran-Israel War, as CTP-ISW previously noted. Defa Press argued that Chinese fighter jets, particularly the Chengdu J-10, can play an “important role” in helping Iran defend its airspace and confront foreign adversaries. Defa Press highlighted that the Chengdu J-10 is designed for air-to-air combat and can destroy targets “with power.” Defa Press also noted that the Chengdu J-10 is cheaper than some Russian, US, and British fighter jets. Iran has for years sought to purchase Russian Sukhoi-35 fighter jets, but Russia has yet to deliver the fighter jets to Iran.[40] Unspecified Iranian sources told Reuters on June 23 that Iran was unsatisfied with Russia's support for Iran during the Iran-Israel War.[41]
Defa Press also reported that Nasir Zadeh visited the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy's Kaifeng destroyer with the defense ministers of other Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member states during his visit to China.[42] Nasir Zadeh thanked China for supporting Iran's “legitimate position” in the Israel-Iran War while visiting the Kaifeng.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-29-2025