IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, NOVEMBER 25
Protests continued but did not surge across Iran despite calls for protests.
The regime’s protest crackdown and abuse of arrested demonstrators will alienate large swaths of the population and entrench anti-regime sentiment throughout Iran for a long time.
Citizens in Mazandaran Province sent medical supplies to protesters in Kurdistan Province, according to Radio Farda.
Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid continued to inspire protests throughout Sistan and Baluchistan Province.
Hacker group Black Reward defaced the website of IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency.
The IRGC Ground Forces has deployed armored and special forces units to unspecified locations in northwestern and western Iran, likely to crack down on protesters and deter further demonstrations.
US-based NGO Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRAI) estimated that the regime has arrested over 18,000 protesters thus far.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-november-25
IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, NOVEMBER 26
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei publicly rejected the possibility of compromise or reform to placate the ongoing protests. Khamenei may have meant to use his speech to signal to other senior regime officials his disapproval of cooperating with reformists to quell the protests.
President Ebrahim Raisi visited members of the Basij special forces on November 25, confirming their involvement in the protest crackdown.
Protest coordinators and organizations have called for protests throughout Iran from December 5 to 7.
Protests centered primarily around universities, highlighting once again the different demographics that comprise the protest movement
At least 15 protests took place in four cities across four provinces.
Dozens of local leaders from Baneh, Kurdistan Province issued a video statement condemning the regime crackdown and expressing support for the protesters.
Iranian-backed militants fired two rockets at US patrol base in Hasaka Province, Syria.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-november-26
IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, NOVEMBER 27
Iranian protest organization groups may be reinforcing their organizational capabilities as protest activity entered a relative lull over the past several days.
At least six protests took place in four cities across four provinces on November 27.
IRGC Commander Hossein Salami warned Israel, Saudi Arabia, the US and the UK against supporting anti-regime protests in a speech to Basij members in Sistan and Baluchistan Province.
Regime and IRGC media channels published a video threatening to attack Azerbaijan using rhetoric common during the Iran-Iraq War.
Cultural and parliamentary entities have proposed legal measures to expedite the suppression of protesters and reward elite members of the regime.
Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia Al Sudani will travel to Tehran on November 29 ostensibly to mediate tensions between Iran and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-november-27
Social media users circulated calls for protests following the US-Iran world cup match on November 29, although it is unclear to what extent these demonstrations will materialize.
The Iranian regime is coordinating with Qatari officials to suppress public acts of defiance among Iranians in Doha, including members of the Iranian national football team.
At least 10 protests took place in six cities across six provinces on November 28.
Social media users documented trucker strikes throughout Iran for the third consecutive day.
IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Amir Ali Haji Zadeh announced that over 300 protesters and security personnel have died since anti-regime protests began on September 16, although this number is almost certainly higher.
The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) has stationed security forces at the Iran-Iraq border, decreasing the likelihood of an IRGC ground incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan.
Anti-regime Black Reward hacker group claimed to have leaked a conversation between Basij Deputy Commander Ghassem Ghoureishi and state-affiliated media actors referencing intra-regime fissures over ongoing protests. Black Reward claimed a cyberattack on IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency's website on November 25, which Fars later confirmed.[5] The recorded discussion between Ghoureishi and his subordinates purportedly originated from Fars’ digital archives. The two-and-a-half-hour-long audio file confirmed extensive protest activity and other acts of defiance on November 15, including significant strikes in 22 of Iran's 31 provinces and almost complete store closures in Tehran city. Ghouresishi additionally stated that Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani, President Ebrahim Raisi, and Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei separately met with reformists at unspecified dates, possibly corroborating prior reporting that senior Iranian officials had met with prominent reformists to discuss strategies to quell ongoing unrest.[6] The audio file also referenced directives allegedly given by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to violently crack down on dissent. One of the speakers noted that Khamenei complained that members of the Expediency Discernment Council—a council that mediates between regime entities and advises the supreme leader—had failed to condemn demonstrations and separately warned LEC Commander Hossein Ashtari against failing to sufficiently suppress protests. The conversation similarly included referenced waning morale among security personnel.[7]
Black Reward has previously described itself as a group of anti-regime Iranian hackers who support the Mahsa Amini protest movement, although no entity has been able to confirm the group's identity nor the veracity of their information.[8] The group previously claimed to have hacked sensitive information relating to the Iranian nuclear program on October 21.[9] CTP cannot authenticate Black Reward's leaked audio file. The conversation does allude to intra-regime fractures congruent with CTP’s prior reporting and assessments, however, and is completely plausible if not verifiable. CTP does not regard this audio file as independent confirmation of previous assessments, however, as it has not been authenticated by any reputable actor.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-november-28