Iran Update Special Report, June 17, 2025, Morning Edition
This update will focus on reports about the strike campaign and identify the areas struck between 6:00 PM ET on June 16 and 6:00 AM ET on June 17.
Iran Update Special Report, June 17, 2025, Evening Edition
Information Cutoff: 6:00 PM ET
The IAEA confirmed that Israeli strikes have impacted underground infrastructure at the Natanz nuclear site. This came after the IAEA reported that Israeli strikes have likely damaged or destroyed thousands of centrifuges at Natanz.
Israel has continued striking Iranian military targets, which has likely degraded Iranian missile forces significantly. This degradation is reflected in the decreasing volume of Iranian missile fire at Israel.
Israel has continued striking energy infrastructure and regime sites connected to domestic surveillance and repression. These strikes could reduce the ability of the regime to control the population and, in turn, destabilize it.
US President Donald Trump called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” This came as the United States sent additional forces to the Middle East and could reportedly meet with senior Iranian officials in the coming days to discuss a resolution to the war.
Iran has prepared to fire missiles at US forces if the United States strikes Iran, according to the New York Times. The outlet reported that Iran would first attack US positions in Iraq and then in other unspecified Arab countries, presumably those around the Persian Gulf.
Iranian-backed militias have agreed to attack US forces in Iraq if the United States strikes Iran. These militias are the same ones that conducted around 200 attacks targeting US positions in Iraq and Syria from October 2023 to November 2024.
A senior Houthi official said that the Houthis “will intervene to support Iran against Israel.” The Houthis could support Iran by firing projectiles at US and Israeli targets or resuming attacks targeting international shipping.
maps + details
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-report-june-17-2025-evening-edition
This explainer is meant to help build a common understanding of the structure and function of the myriad entities within the Iranian armed forces and the roles that they play in regime security. Follow the Iran updates produced by the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War for regular analysis on the role that the armed forces are playing in the Israel-Iran war.
full report https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/explainer-iranian-armed-forces
Israeli strikes have focused on targeting the Iranian missile program in recent hours. Israel has struck several sites tied to missile production, including a site that Iran has expanded significantly in recent years to build weapons for Russia and the so-called “Axis of Resistance.”
Iran downed an Israeli drone around Esfahan. This marks the first confirmed Israeli aircraft that Iran has downed since the Israeli strikes began.
Iran conducted two ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel. The attacks reportedly included around 20 and 30 missiles.
Iran Update Special Report, June 18, 2025, Evening Edition
Information Cutoff: 5:00 PM ET
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei categorically rejected US President Donald Trump's call for Iran's “unconditional surrender” and threatened to target the United States if the United States intervenes in the Israel-Iran conflict.[1] Khamenei’s statements are consistent with CTP-ISW’s assessment that Iran has maintained its negotiating position on its nuclear program during the Israeli air campaign and does not yet appear willing to negotiate an end to the Israel-Iran War.[2] Khamenei delivered a televised speech on June 18 in which he stated that Iran “will not surrender to anyone in the face of imposition.”[3] Trump called for Iran's “unconditional surrender” in a social media post on June 17.[4] Khamenei described Trump's comments as “unacceptable” and “unwise.”[5] Khamenei also warned that US involvement in the conflict will “undoubtedly cause irreparable damage to [the United States].”[6] The United States is currently deploying additional assets to the Middle East to “provide options to defend US assets and interests.”[7]
The so-called “Axis of Resistance” has continued to threaten retaliation if the United States joins the war against Iran. These threats have come from Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.
Israeli strikes have driven Iranian forces to begin firing missiles from central Iran rather than western Iran. Iranian forces will need to use longer-range missiles to reach Israel from the launch sites in central Iran.
Iran is struggling to coordinate large-scale missile strikes targeting Israel due to pressure from Israeli strikes. This is reflected in the volume of recent Iranian missile fire, which has decreased significantly throughout the war.
The Iranian regime appears to be very concerned about internal unrest. An internet monitoring group reported a “near-total internet blackout” across Iran on June 18. The internet disruption has caused many Iranian media outlets to go offline, which limits the amount of information coming from the Iranian domestic information space.[42] The regime has also arrested several individuals whom it claims are “Mossad spies” since the start of the Israeli air campaign on June 12, which further illustrates the regime's growing paranoia about infiltration and heightened concern about internal security threats.[43] The Iranian Parliament passed a bill on June 17 that imposes harsher penalties on individuals who cooperate with “hostile” foreign governments, almost certainly referring to Israel and the United States.[44] The bill defines “cooperation” broadly, including actions such as sending videos or images to foreign media networks that might “weaken public morale or create division.”[45]
Iran has likely taken these steps to crack down on any potential internal unrest and threats to regime stability that Israel's ongoing air campaign against Iran could incite. CTP-ISW previously assessed that Israeli airstrikes on Iran's energy infrastructure will likely worsen Iran's ongoing energy crisis by causing more frequent electricity shortages.[46] Iranians have previously protested against the regime in response to energy shortages and blackouts.[47] Israeli airstrikes have also damaged water infrastructure in northern Tehran, which has led to disruptions in the local water supply. Israeli strikes will also likely impact Iran's already struggling economy, which could stoke internal unrest. The Iranian rial has depreciated by 116,000 rials to one US dollar since the start of the Israeli air campaign on June 12. Reuters reported on June 17 that Iranian oil exports have nearly come to a halt, with a projected 94 percent decline by the end of the week.[48] Residents in Tehran told Iranian opposition media on June 18 that the regime reportedly deployed riot police to Tehran, which underscores the regime's concern about the possibility of internal unrest amid the Israeli air campaign.[49]
The IDF has continued to target the Iranian internal security apparatus. The IAF struck the Law Enforcement Command (LEC) Headquarters in Tehran City on June 18.[50] Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that the IAF “destroyed” Iran's “central repressive arm.”[51] The IAF previously struck the LEC Headquarters on June 15.[52] The LEC has many subordinate units, including the Prevention and Operations Police, which commands law enforcement stations across Iran, and Special Units, a highly trained, anti-riot force that deploys when regular police cannot contain civil disorder.[53] Disruption to institutions like the LEC could degrade the regime's ability to maintain internal security and social control. The IAF also reportedly conducted new airstrikes targeting the Shahid Meisami Group in Karaj, Alborz Province.[54] The IAF previously targeted the Shahid Meisami Group on June 16.[55] The United States sanctioned the Shahid Meisami Group in December 2020 for testing and producing chemical agents for use as incapacitation agents.[56] Iran has previously used pharmaceutical-based agents to suppress internal dissent.[57]
Two anti-regime hacker groups conducted cyber attacks on June 18 that targeted Iranian financial and media institutions. Gonjeshke Darande (Predatory Sparrow) targeted Iranian cryptocurrency exchange company Nobitex, “burning” over $90 million of Nobitex holdings.[58] Gonjeshke Darande is a pro-Israel hacker group that has conducted cyber attacks targeting Iranian infrastructure since at least 2021.[59] Gonjeshke Darande claimed that Nobitex enabled the Iranian regime to bypass sanctions and finance the Axis of Resistance.[60] Gonjeshke Darande recently targeted Iranian state-owned Bank Sepah on June 17.[61] The United States sanctioned Bank Sepah in November 2018 for supporting the Iranian Defense Ministry.[62] Bank Sepah users have been unable to access their accounts, process payments, or withdraw cash from ATMs since the cyber attack.[63] The IRGC Cyber Security Command claimed that it thwarted several Israeli cyber attacks on Iran's banking network on June 17.[64] The command stated that cyber attacks disrupted services at two banks.[65] The cyber attacks on Iranian financial institutions come amid already dire economic conditions in Iran. An unidentified group separately hacked Iranian state TV and broadcasted anti-government videos calling on Iranian citizens to ”take to the streets.”[66] Iran's Information and Communications Ministry announced a temporary restriction on internet access following the cyber attack.[67]