Iran Update Special Report, June 14, 2025, Morning Edition
Iran has used significantly fewer munitions in its response to Israel than originally planned because the IDF destroyed and damaged missile launchers and silos that Iran planned to use to retaliate against Israel. This is consistent with CTP-ISW’s observation that degrading Iran’s retaliatory capabilities was one objective of the initial Israeli strikes on June 12.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has continued to strike Iranian air defense systems to maintain air superiority over Iran.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Brigadier General Majid Mousavi to replace Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajji Zadeh as the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force commander. The IRGC Aerospace Force oversees the Iranian missile and drone programs and led the Iranian attacks against Israel in April and October 2024.
Iran has conducted six waves of ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel from Iranian territory since the initial Israeli strikes on June 12. At least 10 interceptors, shrapnel, or ballistic missiles struck the Tel Aviv area, causing damage to high-rise buildings, over 60 injuries, and one death.
The IDF has reportedly continued to target Iranian military targets. Some of these strikes—but not all—seek to degrade Iran’s retaliatory capabilities.
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Iran Update Special Report, June 14, 2025, Evening Edition
Cutoff: 6:00 PM ET
The Israeli air campaign is driving generational turnover in Iranian military leadership.[1] Israeli strikes have killed numerous senior military officers so far. These individuals, such as Mohammad Bagheri and Amir Ali Hajji Zadeh, had occupied some of the highest positions in the Iranian armed forces for years and, in some cases, decades.[2] Many of these officers had close personal bonds to one another, having forged brotherly ties in their youth during the Iran-Iraq War and maintained those relationships as they rose together through military ranks in the following decades. These relationships created an informal influence network at the highest echelons of the Iranian military establishment. These officers were extremely influential in shaping Iranian strategy due to their positions at the top of the military hierarchy and their immediate access to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. These officers intervened in Iranian domestic affairs on several occasions to assert their shared political preferences and see the regime through internal crises. CTP-ISW identified this network in a 2013 report, labeling it the IRGC Command Network.[3] That Israel has killed so many members within and in the orbit of the Command Network in recent days means that Israel has not only removed a key leadership cadre—it has also degraded one of the most stable and influential factions in the Islamic Republic. The Command Network has been an enduring presence in Iranian decision-making circles for decades—one of the few factions to remain so dominant other than Khamenei himself. It is too soon to assess what implications the dismantlement of the Command Network will have on Iranian behavior and strategy.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Major General Amir Hatami as the overall Artesh commander. Hatami is notably a vocal proponent of Iran’s “active deterrence” doctrine, which has underpinned the offensive strategy that Iran has had since 2014-16.
The IDF has continued to target Iranian military targets across Iran, likely to degrade Iran’s retaliatory capabilities.
This update contains early battle damage assessments (BDA) of several Iranian facilities, including Natanz, Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center, and several military bases.
Two US officials said Israeli strikes at Natanz were “extremely effective,” but a senior Israeli official added that the damage is not yet “fatal.”
Israel struck the Artesh Air Force 2nd Tactical Airbase (TAB) in Tabriz on the night of June 12 to 13, as CTP-ISW previously reported. The strikes destroyed several buildings north of Artesh Air Force aircraft hangars and cratered the approaches from the hangars to the runway.
Israel may have destroyed a likely aircraft hangar and a radar at Hamedan Air Force Base (43km north of Hamedan) on the night of June 12 to 13.
Israel struck several buildings at the Amand Missile Base that likely stored ballistic missiles.
Israel struck the Bakhtaran (Panj Pelleh) underground missile base in Kermanshah on June 13.
Israel expanded its ongoing strike campaign against Iran on June 14 by targeting critical energy infrastructure. This expansion marks new Israeli efforts to degrade Iran’s capacity to sustain its military and nuclear program.
CTP-ISW is monitoring reports that the IDF struck the Shahran oil depot on the northwestern outskirts of Tehran on June 14.
Iran may respond to the Israeli escalation by threatening international maritime security.
Iranian officials said that Iran will not return to US-Iran nuclear negotiations until Israel halts its attacks on Iran and Iran has finished its retaliatory attacks on Israel.
Some of Iran’s partners and proxies in the Axis of Resistance have so far failed to meaningfully intervene and impose costs on Israel for targeting Iran so far.
Iran has launched seven waves of ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel from Iranian territory since initial Israeli strikes on June 12.
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Iran Update Special Report, June 15, 2025, Morning Edition
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has targeted several nuclear sites in Tehran since CTP-ISW’s last data cutoff on June 14.
A US weapons expert reported on June 15 that, if Israel does not render the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) inoperable, then Iran would be able to produce enough weapons-grade uranium (WGU) for nine nuclear weapons by the end of the first month using its pre-attack 60% enriched uranium stockpile.
The IDF has also targeted several military and defense industrial sites outside Tehran since CTP-ISW’s last data cutoff on June 14.
Israel expanded its ongoing strike campaign against Iran on June 14 by attacking critical Iranian energy infrastructure.
Iran has conducted two waves of ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel from Iranian territory since CTP-ISW’s last data cutoff on June 14.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has continued to strike Iranian missile launchers, which is likely limiting the scale of the Iranian response to Israel.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-report-june-15-2025-morning-edition
Iran Update Special Report, June 15, 2025, Evening Edition
Information Cutoff: 6:00 PM ET
The IDF expanded its air campaign into Iran by beginning to strike regime institutions, including some related to internal security and social control. This comes the day after the IDF began striking energy infrastructure. The degradation of the Iranian coercive apparatus coupled with energy shortages could destabilize the regime.
The IDF conducted its furthest strike eastward as part of its efforts to establish air superiority over Iran. The IDF specifically struck an Artesh airbase around Mashhad in northeastern Khorasan Razavi Province. Most of the Israeli strikes targeting air defenses have been around western and central Iran thus far.
Iran has continued its missile campaign targeting Israel, having launched 10 total barrages at the time of this writing. Two of these barrages occurred in recent hours. The IDF has intercepted around 92 percent of the missiles that Iran has fired at Israel thus far, according to an Israeli official speaking to Reuters.
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