Iran Update Special Edition: Israeli Strikes on Iran, June 12, 2025
Information Cutoff: 21:45 EST
This update is the first of at least three CTP-ISW Iran Updates over the next 24 hours that will cover the Iran-Israel war. The recent Israeli strikes are a rapidly evolving situation, and no single individual or organization will have complete information at this time, including the states involved. Some of the information that is available in the open-source will be contradictory or inaccurate. CTP-ISW will continually refine our assessments over the coming days and weeks, as we work to understand the situation. CTP-ISW will issue corrections and clearly articulate when we refine an earlier understanding of events.
Many sources will misinterpret information in the coming hours. Social media users posted footage that showed dozens of bright streaks in the sky during the October 2024 Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel and claimed that all of the streaks were ballistic missiles, for example. It later emerged that some of the streaks were ballistic missile interceptors, not missiles.
CTP-ISW will only publish high-confidence information. Our maps and the update below include information including “anti-aircraft fire,” reported and confirmed explosions, and reported and confirmed airstrikes. Some users online may misinterpret anti-aircraft fire as evidence of an airstrike. Some air defense systems have long ranges that make it difficult to assess if the air defense fire's point of origin is the actual target or if the air defense systems are protecting a more distant site. Likewise, the sounds of explosions may not denote an airstrike because some sources may misinterpret the sounds of missile launches or other kinetic activity.
More + maps: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-edition-israeli-strikes-iran-june-12-2025
Iran Update Special Edition: Israeli Strikes on Iran,
June 13, 2025 08:00 ET In addition to striking nuclear and military infrastructure, Israel has conducted a decapitation campaign targeting Iranian military leadership. Israeli strikes have killed the following individuals as well as several other military officials and prominent nuclear scientists:
Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS) Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri
Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters Commander Major General Gholam Ali Rashid
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Hossein Salami
IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajji Zadeh
Former Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani[12]
These individuals have been highly influential voices in the Iranian military establishment for decades. They played pivotal roles in Iranian strategy across the Middle East, especially as it grew more aggressive after around 2014-16.[13] The AFGS is the seniormost Iranian military body and is responsible for military policy and strategic guidance. The Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters is the highest Iranian operational headquarters and is thus responsible for joint and wartime operations, performing a role similar to a US combatant command. The sudden loss of these individuals appears to have caused significant disruption within the Iranian military decision-making network, which may have contributed to the lack of a meaningful Iranian response so far.
This disruption is temporary, however, as Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has already appointed these individuals’ successors. Khamenei appointed Major General Abdol Rahim Mousavi as AFGS chief, Major General Ali Shadmani as Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters commander, and Major General Mohammad Pak Pour as IRGC commander.[14] It is unclear who replaced Hajji Zadeh or has filled the positions that these individuals previously held. CTP-ISW will provide further information on these individuals in the following updates.
more + maps https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-edition-israeli-strikes-iran-june-13-2025
Iran Update Special Edition: Israeli Strikes on Iran, June 13, 2025 2:00 PM ET
Israel launched an air campaign targeting the Iranian nuclear program and regime leadership on June 12 to “degrade, destroy, and remove [the] threat” of Iranian weaponization of its nuclear program. The June 12 to 13 strikes are the opening volley in a weekslong air campaign, according to multiple Israeli officials. It will be difficult to assess the success or failure of the Israeli air campaign based on these objectives in this early stage.
Israel's strikes intended to impose discrete military effects on Iran that made it difficult for Iran to respond quickly. These effects included the suppression of Iranian air defenses, the degradation of Iran's ability to retaliate against Israel, and the disruption of Iranian command and control. Israel's ability to generate at least some of these effects has contributed to Israel's immediate success and set conditions for Israel to continue and expand the campaign as needed.
more + maps https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-edition-israeli-strikes-iran-june-13-2025-200-pm-et