Iran may try to secure an interim nuclear deal before negotiating a comprehensive nuclear agreement to delay or prevent a US or Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and the imposition of snapback sanctions by the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany), as CTP-ISW previously assessed.[1] The Wall Street Journal reported on May 23 that the United States and Iran are considering negotiating a framework deal, citing unspecified individuals familiar with the US-Iran nuclear negotiations.[2] An unspecified senior official familiar with the negotiations told the WSJ that the goal would be “to establish an understanding on the key points that would constitute a final agreement.”[3]
Iran and the P5+1 (the United States, the United Kingdom, China, France, Russia and Germany) reached an interim deal in 2013 that froze elements of Iran's nuclear program in exchange for temporary sanctions relief prior to further negotiations that led to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015.[4] Iran agreed to eliminate its 20 percent enriched uranium stockpile, refrain from operating any inactive centrifuges, halt the production and installation of new centrifuges, cease construction of the Arak heavy water reactor, and accept new International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) oversight measures in the 2013 interim deal.[5] It is unclear what concessions Iran would be willing to make for an interim deal in the current nuclear negotiations.
The United States and Iran held their fifth round of nuclear talks in Rome on May 23.[6] US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi led the US and Iranian delegations, respectively.[7] Omani Foreign Minister and lead mediator Badr Albusaidi said the latest round of nuclear talks ended with “some but not conclusive progress.”[8] Two unspecified Iranian sources separately told CNN that Iran is participating in the fifth round of talks to gauge the Trump administration's position, likely referring to the US demand for zero uranium enrichment, which continues to be the main sticking point in the US-Iran nuclear negotiations.[9] Araghchi posted on X (Twitter) on May 22 that zero enrichment means ”we do not have a deal.”[10] Technical teams accompanied both the US and Iranian delegations, which suggests the talks covered technical issues such as Iranian uranium enrichment levels.[11] CTP-ISW previously assessed that disagreements between Iran and the United States about the issue of zero uranium enrichment may stall the negotiations or delay a deal.[12] Iran and the United States could agree to an interim or framework deal that does not explicitly include the US demand for zero uranium enrichment.
The Artesh Ground Forces deputy commander unveiled new tactical drones on May 22 in Sistan and Baluchistan.[13] The new drones, which were developed by the Artesh, may reflect some lessons observed from the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. The new drones will probably contribute to the development or implementation of new tactics to counter anti-regime militant groups, including the Baloch Salafi-jihadi militant group Jaish al Adl that regularly attacks Iranian security forces and infrastructure in southeastern Iran.
Deputy Commander of the Artesh Ground Forces Deputy Commander Brigadier General Nozar Nemati, unveiled three new drones: the Didban, Shahin-1, and Homa.[14] All three drones have vertical take-off and landing capability.[15] Nemati stated that the drones will be integrated into regional combat units stationed in Sistan and Baluchistan Province to “confront any [security] threat“, which is an implicit reference to Jaish al Adl.[16] The Didban is a reconnaissance drone that can reportedly fly at 6,000 feet.[17] The Shahin-1 is a high-speed first-person view (FPV) drone that is reportedly capable of striking stationary and mobile targets. The Homa can reportedly fly above 12,000 feet and operate at night. Iranian media claimed the Homa can conduct reconnaissance missions “in electronic warfare (EW) situations,” suggesting it is hardened to EW disruptions.[18] The proliferation of EW capabilities on both sides has been a predominant characteristic of the war in Ukraine.[19] Both sides use EW capabilities to disrupt FPV and other drones, which have been critical for both sides in the war. Iran's development of these capabilities may reflect lessons learned in the war in Ukraine.
The newly unveiled drones may be part of a broader Iranian effort to leverage drone warfare to confront insurgent threats in Sistan and Baluchistan Province. These drones, which are small and man-portable, could increase the amount of tactical-level intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) platforms available to Iranian security forces operating in Sistan and Baluchistan Province. The FPV drones can provide small Iranian units with an organic precision strike capability that they currently lack. Iranian units could use the recon drones to provide targeting intelligence that can then be exploited by FPV drones without the need to coordinate with larger formations to use higher-end assets. Artesh Ground Forces Commander Brigadier General Kiomars Heydari recently emphasized the importance of expanding drone capabilities in Sistan and Baluchistan Province.[20] Heydari stated on May 22 that Iran has recently established three new drone bases in Sistan and Baluchistan Province as part of a broader effort to secure southeastern Iran.[21]
The Syrian government expelled pro-Iran Palestinian groups from Syria, which underscores the challenges that Iran will face in rebuilding its networks in Syria. Palestinian faction leaders told Agence France-Presse on May 23 that the Syrian transitional government pressured Palestinian militia leaders in Syria to flee the country and disarm their forces.[32] Many Palestinian militias maintained a presence in Syria under Assad. The government previously formed a committee to monitor Palestinian faction activities in Syria and has detained several Palestinian militia members since April 2025.[33] The transitional government reportedly did not issue formal requests for the leaders to leave Syrian territory, but pressured them with restrictions and property confiscation.[34] A Palestinian faction leader told AFP that Palestinian leaders have evacuated to Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon after their expulsion from Syria.[35] Palestinian militias like Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) have historically maintained envoys in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and conduct fundraising activities there to generate funds for the October 7 War.[36] This history makes the Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen a welcome place for these Palestinian militia leaders.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-23-2025
The municipal elections concluded on Saturday in the governorates of South Lebanon and Nabatieh, after four rounds of voting across the country. By the end of the day, the participation rate was 37 percent, compared to 48 percent in the 2016 municipal elections, according to the Interior Ministry.
The Amal-Hezbollah lists were elected unopposed in 102 out of 272 municipalities, according to figures relayed by L’Orient Today's correspondent in southern Lebanon. In villages where voting took place, the lists backed by these two parties emerged victorious, while a few rare breakthroughs by non-affiliated lists were recorded.
Until Saturday at dawn, the Amal-Hezbollah alliance continued its efforts, with the participation of Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri to “encourage” its opponents in Shiite-majority villages to withdraw. As a result, in dozens of these villages, municipal councils loyal to this alliance were elected unopposed. In the towns where the voting took place, the two maintained its dominance, often electing all its candidates.
The low voter turnout, which did not exceed 27 percent of registered voters in Bint Jbeil for example, could indicate a weakening of Hezbollah's ability to mobilize, at a time when the party needed a show of force more than ever. It could also be due to the fact that several lists had already been elected unopposed. It should also be noted that to avoid confrontation at the polls with independents or families, the Hezbollah-Amal alliance made concessions in several villages, by withdrawing some of its candidates in favor of the other camp.
Notably, Israel did not carry out any strikes or attacks during the voting hours, although its army did escalate on the eve of the elections, allowing the election to proceed normally. A victory for the state, which, thanks to diplomacy and the guarantees it secured, was able to protect Hezbollah's voters and all the inhabitants of the South.
Iran Update, May 26, 2025
Truck drivers across Iran have launched a nationwide strike over rising insurance and maintenance costs and worsening economic conditions.[1] The truck drivers are protesting the government’s plan to cut the amount of subsidized diesel allocated to truckers.[2] Strikers also cited unaffordable insurance premiums, stagnant freight rates, and deteriorating road infrastructure.[3] The government-subsidized insurance premium for truck drivers increased by approximately 45 percent earlier this year.[4] The strike began in Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province, which is Iran’s primary shipping hub, on May 18 and has since spread to other major Iranian cities.[5] Economic-related protests and strikes have the potential to escalate into anti-regime protests similar to how demonstrations against increasing gas prices morphed into anti-regime protests in 2017 and 2018.[6]
The ongoing strikes will likely worsen Iranian freight transport issues, especially after a recent explosion at a major port in Bandar Abbas. The Shahid Rajaee port in Bandar Abbas, which handles 85 percent of Iran’s container traffic and a significant share of oil exports, suffered a major explosion on April 26 that has disrupted container traffic and cost Iran an estimated 25 million US dollars per day.[7] The ongoing strike has reportedly strained domestic freight transport, particularly agricultural distribution during the harvest season.[8] Iranian officials rejected claims that fruit and vegetable prices increased by 50 percent and stated that only a few staples saw “temporary” increases due to recent transport issues.[9] An Iranian judiciary official reported on May 26 that Fars Province security forces arrested and prosecuted individuals who blocked the movement of freight trucks on roads.[10] Iranian Law Enforcement Command (LEC) forces separately clashed with strikers in Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province, on May 25 with pepper spray.[11]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-26-2025