Replies

Iran Update, May 1, 2025

The fourth round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Rome on May 3 was postponed.[32] The Iranian Foreign Ministry reported on May 1 that US-Iran talks were rescheduled at the suggestion of the Omani foreign minister.[33] Omani Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad al Busaidi said the talks were rescheduled for “logistical reasons.”[34] Iranian officials have repeatedly emphasized in recent months that Iran will not negotiate under military threat or economic pressure.[35] US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth threatened military action against Iran in response to Iran’s support for the Houthis in an April 30 tweet.[36] US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, who has led the US delegation in the first three rounds of US-Iran talks, retweeted Hegseth’s comments. The United States separately sanctioned several entities and vessels on April 29 and 30 that were involved in Iran’s ballistic missile program and Iranian petroleum and petrochemical products trade, respectively.[37] An unspecified senior Iranian official told Reuters on May 1 that US sanctions are not helping the US and Iran resolve nuclear disputes, and the next round of talks will be scheduled “depending on the US approach.”[38] An Iranian expert close to the regime stated on May 1 that talks were postponed due to what unspecified Iranian sources called “contradictory US positions.“[39] The sources also said that the United States was trying to change the general framework of the talks. The Wall Street Journal reported on April 26 that one of the key disputes between Iran and the United States is whether a final agreement should address the Iranian missile program, which Iran has repeatedly indicated it is unwilling to make concessions on.[40] Iran and the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) were also scheduled to hold talks in Rome on May 2 ahead of US-Iran talks.[41] It is unclear if Iran-E3 talks will also be postponed.

Iran continued to expand economic cooperation with China to undermine the US maximum pressure campaign. The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) reported on May 1 that Iran exported 1.6 million barrels per day of crude oil in April 2025.[42] United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) estimated that Iranian oil exports to China made up 97 percent of Iran’s total oil exports in April.[43] Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian separately met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the sidelines of the BRICS security summit in Brazil on May 1.[44] Both officials emphasized the importance of expanding bilateral economic ties to “challenge unilateralism in the international arena.” Iran’s participation in BRICS is part of its broader efforts to establish a parallel international order that challenges Western “dominance.”[45] UANI also reported that Iran increasingly used tankers previously involved in Russian oil trades, further illustrating cooperation between major US adversaries.[46]

Iran continues to strengthen economic ties with African countries, likely to bolster trade and mitigate the impact of Western sanctions. Iran hosted the third Iran-Africa Economic Cooperation Summit from April 27 to May 1 in Tehran.[51] This summit focused on opportunities to bolster trade in the areas of oil, gas, petrochemicals, mining, and energy. Representatives from 38 African countries and senior Iranian political officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, attended the summit.

The Iranian rial depreciated from 815,000 rials to one US dollar on April 30 to 820,000 rials to one US dollar on May 1.[47]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-1-2025

Iran Update, May 2, 2025

Iran is reportedly weighing a compromise to dilute part of its enriched uranium stockpile domestically while exporting the remainder—potentially to Russia—as part of ongoing nuclear talks with the United States.[32] Unspecified sources told Reuters on May 2 that Iranian officials proposed to cap uranium enrichment at 3.67 percent, expand International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) access to nuclear sites, and limit stockpile size and centrifuge types. Iran also reportedly offered to reduce its enrichment infrastructure to around 5,000 centrifuges—down from 15,000 centrifuges that are currently operational—dilute and export its 60 percent enriched uranium under IAEA scrutiny. The proposed cap for uranium enrichment at 3.67 percent is the same as the cap under the 2015 nuclear deal. Iran also reportedly floated the possibility of selling enriched uranium to the United States. An unspecified regional source told Reuters on May 2 that Iran plans to retain a diluted portion of its stockpile domestically while exporting the rest, likely to Russia.[33] Russia has positioned itself to mediate and store Iranian enriched uranium since March 2025.[34] Russia’s role in mediating US-Iran talks is unlikely to secure US interests, given Russia’s alignment with Iran. Russian Permanent Representative to the UN in Vienna Mikhail Ulyanov, for example, downplayed concerns by claiming that Iranian production of 60 percent enriched uranium poses “no weapons risk.”[35]

Iran also suggested that it would not build a nuclear-capable missile as a “gesture of goodwill” but rejected halting its broader missile program.[36] Iranian officials repeatedly reaffirmed that Iranian missile program remains off the table in the ongoing nuclear talks with the United States.[37] Iran’s stance reflects that the missile program is essential to its defense strategy, especially due to the weakness of Iran’s conventional armed forces. The missile program’s centrality to Iran’s defense strategy makes it unlikely that Iran would agree to include missile restrictions in the ongoing negotiations.[38] Iran‘s refusal to compromise on its missile program could jeopardize the talks or force negotiations toward a less expansive agreement than the deal US President Donald Trump reportedly seeks.

Iran has continued to resupply the Houthis and provide intelligence on ship movements to improve Houthi targeting in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, according to unspecified US officials speaking to Saudi news outlets on May 2.[39] US forces intercepted a likely Iranian weapons shipment to the Houthis a few days prior to May 2, according to a US official speaking to Saudi news outlets on May 2.[40] US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s statement on X on April 30, which called out Iran for providing ”lethal support to the Houthis.”[41] Other sources told the same Saudi news outlet that Iranian vessels in the Bab el Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Aden provided intelligence on ship movements to the Houthis.[42] Iran has previously deployed commercial vessels off the coast of Yemen to provide targeting intelligence for the Houthis’ attacks on commercial shipping and US military vessels transiting the Red Sea.[43] Former US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz also told ABC News on March 16 that the United States is prepared to target Iranian ships providing targeting intelligence to the Houthis.[44]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-2-2025