Senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders have resurfaced threats to conduct a direct attack on Israel, likely to try to shape Israeli decision making and deter a potential Israeli strike on Iran. Several senior IRGC commanders, including IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami, IRGC Deputy Commander Brigadier General Ali Fadavi, and IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajji Zadeh, have warned in recent days that Iran will conduct a third “True Promise” attack against Israel.[1] Iran named its previous two direct attacks on Israel in April and October 2024 “True Promise I” and “True Promise II,” respectively.[2] Iranian military officials initially threatened to conduct a third direct attack on Israel after the IDF conducted strikes in Iran in late October 2024.[3] These threats gradually subsided in the weeks following the IDF strikes, however. IRGC commanders have likely resurfaced these threats in recent days to try to deter an Israeli attack on Iran and to reassure the Iranian population that the IRGC would respond to any Israeli attack on Iranian territory.
Hajji Zadeh highlighted Iran's vulnerability to an external attack in an interview on February 18. Hajji Zadeh stated that Iran's “anti-ballistic [missile] defense” systems suffered damage during “recent incidents.”[4] Hajji Zadeh was likely referring to the S-300 air defense systems that the IDF struck in October 2024. The October 2024 IDF strikes rendered Iran's S-300 air defense systems inoperable, likely by destroying the radars that the systems rely on.[5] Hajji Zadeh added that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s “first follow-up” during meetings with Hajji Zadeh, Salami, and Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri is about the issue of “anti-ballistic [missile] defense” systems.[6] Khamenei’s prioritization of this issue highlights his concern about a potential external attack on Iran. Hajji Zadeh claimed that Iran will install “anti-ballistic [missile] defense systems” in Tehran and other major Iranian cities in the next Persian calendar year, which begins in late March 2025.[7]
Senior Iranian officials met with Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) Secretary General Ziad al Nakhalah in Tehran on February 19 and 20. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian met separately with Nakhalah on February 19.[70] IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami separately met with Nakhalah on February 20.[71]
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf discussed developing economic relations between Iran, Azerbaijan, and Russia during a meeting with his Azerbaijani counterpart on the sidelines of the Asian Parliamentary Assembly in Baku, Azerbaijan, on February 20.[72] Ghalibaf emphasized that Iran seeks to develop transportation routes, including the International North-South Transport Corridor, to increase regional trade.[73] Iran opposes Turkish and Azerbaijani efforts to construct the Zangezur corridor, which would connect Azerbaijan proper to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic.[74] Such a corridor would sever Iranian land access to Russia and Europe via Armenia. Ghalibaf also emphasized that Iran and Azerbaijan must prioritize diplomacy given “new conditions” in the South Caucasus.[75] It is possible that Ghalibaf was referring to the Armenian parliament's recent adoption of a bill to initiate Armenia's application to join the European Union.[76] Senior Iranian officials have previously expressed concern about growing NATO and Turkish influence in the Caucasus.[77]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-20-2025
Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri met with Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) Secretary General Ziad al Nakhalah in Tehran on February 20.[48] Bagheri said that Iran has never stopped supporting Palestine and the Axis of Resistance and will continue to do so.
Brigadier General Ebrahim Jabbari—adviser to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander—threatened to attack “all [US] bases and ships in the region” during a speech at the Great Prophet 19 military exercise on February 20.[49] Jabbari said that Iran would conduct a third True Promise attack against Israel and “destroy Tel Aviv and Haifa.”[50] Jabbari’s statements echo recent statements from senior IRGC commanders threatening to conduct another missile attack on Israel.[51] CTP-ISW previously assessed that IRGC commanders have likely resurfaced these threats in recent days to try to deter an Israeli attack on Iran and to reassure the Iranian population that the IRGC would respond to any attack on Iran.
Senior Iranian officials have continued to reiterate their desire for “resistance” militias to form in Syria and oppose the interim government. Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian stated on February 21 that Israel occupied Syria as the result of a failed campaign in the Gaza Strip, and the “occupation” of Syria would lead to the emergence of a new resistance.[52] Senior Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, suggested in recent months that Syrian youth should arm and mobilize against the interim government.[53] Khamenei said in December 2024 that zealous Syrian youth would liberate “occupied areas” of Syria, drawing a parallel to Iraqi youth who, with support and direction from the IRGC Quds Force, attacked and killed hundreds of US service members between 2003 and 2011.[54]
The Iranian rial remained valued at 930,700 rials to one US dollar on February 21.[55]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-21-2025