Senior Iranian military leaders have urged Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in recent months to approve the construction of a nuclear weapon, according to an unspecified Iranian official speaking to the Telegraph.[1] The article reported that the military leaders have previously supported Khamenei’s policy against nuclear weapons but now feel that they are faced with an “existential threat” since US President Donald Trump entered office. The unspecified Iranian official said that “we have never been this vulnerable, and it may be our last change to obtain [a nuclear weapon] before its too late.” The official added that the Khamenei’s decisions to forbid nuclear weapons and negotiations with the United States is “driving the regime toward collapse.”[2] The official claimed that Iran has been “just a few button presses away from building a nuclear weapon for some time now.”[3] This article follows the New York Times reporting that Iranian scientists are exploring how to build a crude nuclear weapon quickly.[4] These reports are consistent with CTP-ISW assessment that Iran has restarted its nuclear weapons research but has not yet made a deliberate effort to build a weapon.
Khamenei’s Foreign Affairs Advisor Kamal Kharrazi previously told the Financial Times in July 2024 that Iran was open to pursuing nuclear weaponization if faced with ”an existential threat.”[5] Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi alluded to the ”heated debate” on whether to build a nuclear weapon on January 28, when Araghchi threatened pursuing one if the E3 triggered snapback sanctions before October 2025.[6]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-9-2025
Iranian officials who had previously supported nuclear negotiations with the United States explicitly supported Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s decision to reject nuclear negotiations with the United States on February 10.[21] These officials included Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi, who worked on nuclear negotiations with the West under the Rouhani administration and remained a key supporter of negotiations.[22] President Masoud Pezeshkian, who similarly signaled his openness to negotiations with the West, also indicated his alignment with Khamenei‘s stance.[23] Senior political officials and Artesh and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders also condemned US President Donald Trump‘s “maximum pressure” policy towards Iran and dismissed any potential US and Israeli “threats” to Iran.[24] The coalescence of top regime officials on the nuclear issue, including those previously supportive of negotiations, follows The Telegraph's report on February 8, which stated that senior Iranian military leaders have been urging Khamenei in recent months to approve the construction of a nuclear weapon.[25]
Saudi media reported on February 10 that Lebanese authorities are continuing to “closely inspect” planes from Iran and Iraq to Beirut to prevent Iranian cash transfers to Hezbollah.[58] Western media reported in December 2024 that Iran may seek to establish a new “ logistics hub” in the Beirut airport for military shipments to Hezbollah.[59] Lebanese airport security forces searched an Iranian Mahan Air flight in Beirut on suspicion of transporting funds to Hezbollah in early January.[60] The Wall Street Journal reported on January 31 that Israel accused unnamed Turkish citizens of moving money for Hezbollah from Istanbul to Beirut by air since the start of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement.[61]
Turkish Intelligence Chief Ibrahim Kalin met with Iranian Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib and Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian separately in Tehran on February 8 and 9.[70] The officials reportedly discussed the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK), ISIS in Syria, and the Israel-Hamas ceasefire.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-10-2025