Iran Update, February 6, 2025
There are early indications of fissures between Iran-backed Shia political parties and figures ahead of the parliamentary elections in October 2025. Iraqi media reported on February 6 that the Iranian-backed Shia Coordination Framework appears “divided” due to an ongoing dispute between Maliki and National Wisdom Movement head Ammar al Hakim.[10] The dispute is reportedly over Maliki’s outsized influence in the Shia Coordination Framework and the removal of the Dhi Qar governor, who is a member of Hakim’s party. Iraqi media reported on January 30 that Hakim has boycotted several Shia Coordination Framework meetings because Maliki orchestrated the removal of the Dhi Qar governor.[11] Unidentified sources told Iraqi media on February 6 that Shia Coordination Framework members discussed unifying Shia factions and resolving tensions with Hakim on February 5.[12] Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani reportedly convinced Hakim to resume his participation in Shia Coordination Framework meetings in return for the appointment of Hakim-backed figures to government positions.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-6-2025
Iran Update, February 7, 2025
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei categorically rejected nuclear negotiations with the United States during a speech to Iranian military personnel in Tehran on February 7.[1] This marks the first time Khamenei has so explicitly opposed negotiations with the United States since the inauguration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Khamenei stated that negotiations with the United States are “unwise, unintelligent, and dishonorable” and “no one should negotiate” with them.[2] Khamenei stated that Iran is not opposed to negotiations with any state ”except” the United States.[3] Several Friday prayer leaders echoed Khamenei’s statements and criticized negotiations with the United States as “futile.”[4] Friday prayer leaders receive guidance for the content of their Friday sermons from the Office of the Supreme Leader, which suggests that their comments are likely a coordinated messaging campaign. Khamenei also stated that negotiating with the United States “will not solve any problems [in Iran], including economic and livelihood difficulties.”[5] CTP-ISW previously assessed that US “maximum pressure” sanctions would likely further deteriorate the Iranian economy, which is already facing underlying economic issues.[6]
Khamenei’s opposition to negotiations with the United States appears inconsistent with the hypothesis that Iran is expanding its nuclear program to gain leverage in future negotiations. Iran is conducting nuclear research and expanding its stockpile of enriched uranium, which are both steps that could enable it to build a nuclear weapon in a period of months.[7] One plausible reason for Iran’s continued development of its nuclear program is to strengthen its position and increase leverage for future nuclear talks in order to secure more favorable terms. This would, in theory, enable Iran to extract concessions (such as sanctions relief) during negotiations by offering to decrease its stockpile of enriched uranium. Khamenei’s recent statements are inconsistent with this hypothesis, however, because Iran has no reason to increase its leverage with the West if it does not intend to negotiate with the United States. Some senior Iranian officials have recently signaled a willingness to engage in nuclear negotiations with the West, but Khamenei ultimately will decide whether Iran will negotiate, try to build a nuclear weapon, or retain a rapid nuclear breakout capability.[8]
The Iranian Artesh Navy participated in the ninth multinational AMAN-25 naval exercise in Karachi, Pakistan, on February 7 alongside 60 other countries.[84] Pakistan holds the AMAN naval exercise every two years to display its naval and military capabilities. The exercise runs until February 11. This marks the first participation in the AMAN exercise for an Iranian naval vessel. The Iranian Artesh Navy delegation will also attend the AMAN Dialogue Conference on maritime cooperation and meet with Pakistani military officials. Iran and Pakistan last conducted a joint naval exercise in January 2024.[85]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-7-2025