The head of Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba’s political bureau claimed on January 19 that the group would disarm only if Iraqi Grand Ayatollah Ali al Sistani “frankly or directly” requested its disarmament.[23] Sistani is the highest Shia religious authority in Iraq. Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba Political Bureau head Ali al Asadi likely made this comment in response to Iraqi federal government efforts to convince Iranian-backed Iraqi militias to either surrender their weapons or join the official Iraqi security apparatus.[24] Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba leader Akram al Kaabi has previously said that this militia takes its political and religious direction from Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei instead of Sistani. Kaabi’s previous statement that Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba takes direction from Khamenei is inconsistent with Asadi’s invocation of Sistani’s authority.[25] Sistani said in November 2024 that arms should be confined to the Iraqi state.[26] Some Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, including Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada, denied that Sistani’s call was directed at the militias.[27] It is unclear if other Iranian-backed militias besides Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba would agree to disarm if Sistani directly requested that they disarm. Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba is also implicitly bypassing and rejecting the authority of the Iraqi federal government by the invocation of Sistani’s authority. Sistani does not hold an official position in the Iraqi government.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei emphasized the need to support private businesses during a visit to an economic exhibition in Tehran on January 21.[81] The exhibition displayed the Iranian private sector's “achievements” in the fields of satellite manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and aircraft repair, among others. Khamenei urged government officials to address structural challenges in the energy sector to resolve Iran's energy crisis. Iran has experienced severe electricity and natural gas shortages in recent weeks, causing blackouts, economic losses, and business closures.[82] The Iran Chamber of Commerce estimated that power outages have cost the Iranian economy around 250 million US dollars per day during the crisis.[83] CTP-ISW previously assessed that the energy crisis and dire economic conditions could trigger internal unrest. Iranian Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei ordered Iranian security forces to prepare for potential unrest in late December 2024.[84]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-21-2025
Sistani is a counterweight to Iran https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_al-Sistani
Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba head Akram al Kaabi threatened to resume rocket and missile attacks targeting US forces in Iraq if the United States extends its presence past the September 2025 withdrawal date or makes “sudden moves.”[12] Kaabi added that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias will increase the pace of attacks targeting US forces if the United States delays its withdrawal from Ain al Asad airbase.[13] It is notable that US-led international coalition forces will withdraw from some areas in Iraq, including the Ain al Asad airbase, by September 2025 but will not withdraw completely from Iraq until the end of 2026.[14]
Unspecified Western officials told The Financial Times on January 22 that two Iranian cargo vessels carrying a large amount of chemical precursor for solid missile propellant will travel from China to Iran over the next few weeks.[15] The officials expect the vessels to arrive at Bandar-e Abbas port in southern Iran and deliver the material to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The ships are expected to carry more than 1,100 tons of sodium perchlorate, which can be converted to slightly over 1000 tons of ammonium perchlorate, the main component for solid propellant for missiles. Ammonium perchlorate needs to be mixed with other components to create solid fuel propellant for missiles. The unspecified officials estimated that 1000 tons of ammonium perchlorate can—if converted to solid fuel propellant—fuel up to 260 mid-range Iranian ballistic missiles, including the Kheybar Shekan and Haj Qassem. Iran used Kheybar Shekan missiles in both April and October 2024 missile attacks on [16]
Israeli damage estimates from the IDF strikes on Iran in October 2024 suggest that Iran's missile production capabilities likely remain limited, however. Unspecified Israeli sources reported that the IDF strikes hit 12 planetary mixers used to produce solid fuel for ballistic missiles.[17] Iran can reportedly not produce the mixers domestically and remanufacturing the mixers could take at least a year. Iran needs these mixers to combine various components, including ammonium perchlorate, and create solid propellant for missiles. It is not clear if Iran has mixing facilities at other locations but the loss of 12 mixers has likely significantly degraded Iran's ability to produce missiles and mount a large-scale attack on Israel soon, regardless of Iran's supply of ammonium perchlorate.
Iran has previously used ammonium perchlorate for internal missile production and exported it to members of the Axis of Resistance. Iran engaged in secret negotiations with China and Russia in April 2023 to acquire a Chinese supply of ammonium perchlorate for its solid-fueled missiles.[18] The US Navy also interdicted an IRGC shipment of 70 tons of ammonium perchlorate en route from Iran to the Houthis in November 2024. The Houthis could use ammonium perchlorate as a precursor for solid fuel propellant, but there is currently no evidence that the Houthis can manufacture solid fuel. The ammonium perchlorate can also be used to make explosives.
International Atomic Energy Agency Director Raphael Grossi stated on January 22 that Iran is currently producing at least 30 kg of uranium enriched up to 60% every month.[71] Grossi previously stated in December 2024 that Iran's production of 60% enriched uranium would increase by “seven, eight times more, maybe, or even more” than Iran's production levels in December 2024, which were 5 to 7 kg of 60% enriched uranium a month.[72]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-22-2025