Iran Update, January 9, 2025
Behrouz Esbati, one of the seniormost Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in Syria, discussed in a leaked video Iranian plans to rebuild proxy and partner militia networks in Syria that would oppose the HTS-led interim government.[18] These remarks are consistent with CTP-ISW’s ongoing assessment that Iran is trying to stoke sectarian tension in Syria and exploit it to rebuild the Axis of Resistance there. Esbati claimed to command over 10,000 Syrian fighters before the fall of Bashar al Assad.[19] Esbati said that Iran can “activate all the networks” that it has developed over the years in Syria and use social media to “form resistance cells.”[20] Esbati made these comments during a speech to military members at the Vali-ye Asr mosque in Tehran. An unspecified IRGC official—likely a member of the IRGC Quds Force—told the New York Times that Esbati’s comments about recruiting militia fighters were aspirational rather than reflective of discrete IRGC plans.[21] This denial is likely meant to suppress the narrative that the IRGC is trying to subvert the new Syrian government. The unspecified IRGC official also said that Iran would have a better chance at securing its interests in the Middle East if Syria descended into chaos, which is consistent with CTP-ISW‘s assessment that Iran is trying to stoke sectarian tension in Iran.
Esbati also notably said candidly that Iran “was defeated very badly, [and] took a very big blow and it’s been very difficult.”[22] Esbati’s statements are a stark contrast from the formal Iranian regime line that has aimed to downplay the fact that the fall of Assad marks a strategic defeat for Tehran.[23] CTP-ISW previously assessed that the fall of Assad marks the end of the greater Iranian project in the Levant for the foreseeable future and will make it extremely difficult for Iran to transfer the resources needed to recuperate other actors within its Axis of Resistance namely Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah.[24]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-9-2025
Review
Iran Update, January 10, 2025
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) unveiled a new underground missile depot on January 10, as IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami and IRGC Aerospace Force Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajji Zadeh visited the site.[82] The facility reportedly played a role in the Iranian missile attacks against Israel in April and October 2024.[83] The IRGC claimed that the facility contains medium-range Emad and Ghadr ballistic missiles and short-range Qiam ballistic missiles.[84]
The IRGC held the Rahiyan-eh Ghods exercise in Tehran on January 10, likely as a show of force aimed at deterring both internal dissent and external threats.[85] The Fatehin, Imam Ali, and Imam Hossein battalions, which are the Basij’s most elite and loyal units, participated in the exercise. These units are notably responsible for protest suppression and have previously been deployed abroad to deal with external security threats.[86] Commander of the IRGC Tehran Provincial Corps Brigadier General Hassan Hassan Zadeh said that the exercise was meant to showcase the Basij’s readiness to counter threats.[87] Iranian state media claimed that 110,000 Basij members participated and displayed military equipment, likely to signal that Iran has a large force to deal with any threats.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-10-2025
IRGC Commander, on Assad's Ineptitude and Putin's Treachery
Commander Behrouz Esbati, the Public Affairs Director of the Joint Force Cyber Command, on January 7 centered his speech on his firsthand observations of the systemic collapse of the Assad regime. Approximately one hour of his speech was published by Tabnak News Agency, an outlet affiliated with Dr. Mohsen Rezaei, the longest-serving Chief Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Commander Esbati’s remarks can be categorized into two distinct sections. The first section presents an Iranian perspective on the progressive disintegration of the Syrian regime, including the erosion of military morale and widespread demoralization among the Syrian populace. This portion of his analysis appears to be both credible and candid. The second section, however, where Commander Esbati projects the future trajectory of the so-called ‘Axis of Resistance,’ is imbued with ideological rhetoric and serves more as propaganda. I have chosen to place limited emphasis on this part of his discourse.
https://overcast.fm/+ABLBqZqONl8
The first part of Esbati's speech about the corruption in Syria is probably a true description. It remains to be confirmed if it is true that the Russians disconnected the air defense.