Iran Update, December 27, 2024
It appears increasingly unlikely, however, that the HTS-led government’s leadership views negotiating with the SDF as a priority as it formalizes relations with Turkey. HTS, while not a Turkish proxy or beholden to Turkey, has been quick to deepen its cooperation with Turkey since the fall of the Assad regime. HTS’s intensifying alignment with Turkish interests continues to pose an existential threat to the SDF as Turkey continues to signal a possible Turkish incursion into Syria or a Turkish-backed operation in northern Syria to “eliminate” the SDF. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on December 27 that Turkey shall ensure security “beyond its southern borders” and “eliminate terrorist threats” starting in 2025.[25] Abdi warned of a potential “catastrophe” facing Kobani from the Turkish military buildup on the border.[26] Syrian media reported on December 27 that Turkish military reinforcements arrived in the town of Suluk, which is located north of Raqqa in SNA-controlled territory.[27]
The SNA continued to engage the SDF west of Tishreen Dam in the Manbij countryside.[28] Local sources reported that the SNA sent reinforcements to the frontlines near the Tishreen Dam.[29] The SDF claimed on December 27 that it engaged SNA forces near Abu Qalqal in the Manbij countryside.[30]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-27-2024
Iran Update, December 28, 2024
Iraqi Defense Minister Thabet al Abasi inspected Iraqi army units and border police at Rabia border crossing, along the Syria-Iraq border, on December 28.[39] Abbasi met with combat units, including the 71st Infantry Brigade (15th Iraqi Army Division). Abasi visited Rabia two days after Iranian-backed Badr Organization Secretary-General Hadi al Ameri inspected combat units at Rabia border crossing.[40] Abasi’s visit also follows Iraqi Prime Minister Shia al Sudani’s implicit threat that Iraq would intervene in Syria if the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) resurges and threatens Iraq.
The Iranian defense minister emphasized the Iranian armed forces’ preparedness for “hard war” and accused the United States and Israel of exacerbating regional instability, particularly in Syria.[41] Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Aziz Nasir Zadeh announced the commencement of armed forces exercises on December 28, stressing Iran’s readiness and determination to confront any external threats.[42] Nasir Zadeh stated that Iran has “no issues on the frontlines of hard war” and will persist in enhancing its power at all costs. The Iranian regime asserts that it faces three types of threats: soft, semi-hard, and hard threats. Hard threats, which Nasir Zadeh is referring to, involve conventional warfare.[43] Nasir Zadeh is a military aviator and former commander of the Iranian Artesh Air Force and Deputy Chief of the Armed Forces General Staff.[44]
The Iranian Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS) separately stated on December 28 accusing the United States and Israel of orchestrating the ongoing crisis in Syria, framing the situation as part of a broader geopolitical confrontation.[45] The AFGS emphasized Iran’s readiness, bolstered by public support, to decisively counter any aggression while reiterating its commitment to defending sovereignty and asserting regional power.[46]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-28-2024