Iran Update, December 17, 2024
Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said on December 17 that Syria still has debts to Iran despite the fall of the Assad regime.[89] Baghaei said the new Syrian government will assume all of the debt that the Assad regime owed to Iran.[90] Estimates of Syria’s debt to Iran vary widely, with figures ranging from 30 billion dollars to claims of 50 billion dollars spent supporting Assad regime since 2011, though no official account of the debt exists.[91]
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director Raphael Grossi said the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is “no longer useful” given the continued expansion of the Iranian nuclear program.[99] Grossi said that Iran has “developed much stronger [nuclear] capabilities” and is “almost at the level of countries that have nuclear weapons.” Grossi noted that the IAEA, United States, China, Russia, and European Union will have to ”define a system that serves the new Iranian reality.” The IAEA reported in November 2024 that Iran continues to develop its nuclear program outside the parameters of the JCPOA.[100] The IAEA report stated that Iran had 182.3 kg of enriched uranium up to 60 percent as of October 26, 2024, which is equivalent to 4.37 significant quantities.[101] The IAEA defines a significant quantity as the “approximate amount of nuclear material for which the possibility of manufacturing a nuclear explosive device cannot be excluded.”[102] These technical developments are especially noteworthy given recent statements from senior Iranian officials encouraging Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to revoke his 2003 fatwa banning the production and use of nuclear weapons.[103]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-17-2024
Iran and its partners in Iraq are continuing to try to gain control over the Iraqi National Intelligence Service (INIS). Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani appointed Hamid al Shatri as head of the INIS on December 18.[49] Shatri previously served as an administrative assistant to Popular Mobilization Committee Chairman Faleh al Fayyadh and supported Fayyadh during the Iranian-backed crackdown on the Tishreen protest movement that began in October 2019.[50] Shatri is a member and Fayyadh is a former member of the Dawa Party, which is led by former Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki.[51] Iranian-backed figures, including individuals affiliated with Fayyadh, have increasingly infiltrated the INIS since Sudani came to power in late 2022.[52] Several individuals close to Fayyadh, including his nephew Faisal Ghazi al Lami, have assumed senior positions in the organization since late 2022.[53]
Unspecified sources including Western officials, and Iranian “insiders” told Reuters on December 18 that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) now controls up to 50% of Iranian oil exports. This is a significant increase from three years ago when the IRGC controlled 20% of exports.[67] The Iranian government initiated this shift in 2013, implementing a policy to allocate oil to the IRGC instead of cash. This policy sought to give the IRGC access to greater resources because the Iranian government faced budgetary pressures under sanctions. The IRGC established a network involving a shadow fleet of tankers, Chinese front companies, and ship-to-ship transfers to evade sanctions. One such front company, China-based Haokun, operated by former Chinese military officials, continues to facilitate IRGC oil sales despite being sanctioned by the US Treasury in 2022.[68] The US Energy Information Administration estimated Iran's oil revenues were $53 billion in 2023.[69] These revenues primarily fund Iranian support for the Axis of Resistance, including proxies and regional operations.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-18-2024