The Axis of Resistance's support to the Assad regime will almost certainly fail to stop the opposition offensive at this time unless ground forces are deployed rapidly and in larger numbers. Iran reportedly plans to send missiles and drones to Syria, and both Iran and Hezbollah will reportedly provide military advisers.[2] Hezbollah sent a “small number” of “advisers” to Syria on December 5 and Hezbollah has already deployed Hezbollah advisers to Homs.[3] The small number of advisers is unlikely to reverse the country-wide collapse of Syrian forces, and missiles and drones cannot hold or take ground on their own. Hezbollah is unlikely to deploy the larger number of fighters required for Assad to regain territory, given Hezbollah's requirements in Lebanon after the group suffered heavy losses during the Israeli ground campaign in Lebanon.
The Iranian, Iraqi, and Syrian foreign ministers held a trilateral summit in Baghdad on December 6 to coordinate responses to Syria's security crisis.[4] The purpose of Araghchi’s visit to Baghdad was likely to solidify a coordinated approach among Iraq, Syria, and Iran. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi said on December 4 that Iran would “consider” any Syrian request for Iranian ground forces, though no such request has been made at this time.[5] The rapid collapse of Syrian forces across the country will make it difficult for these Iranian ground forces to be able to stop the advance of the Syrian opposition. The opposition is rapidly seizing Assad-held territory, which will make it difficult for Iran to mobilize and then deploy its forces to Syria against the rebels before the rebels destroy much of Assad's remaining forces.
Turkey appears equally unwilling to broker a settlement short of Assad's removal as HTS seeks to overthrow Assad. HTS leader Abu Mohammed al Jolani said that his forces seek to replace the Assad regime in Damascus with a government and a “council chosen by the people.”[6] Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the opposition's goal was “Damascus,” and that he had tried to broker an agreement with the Assad Regime in the past, but that the regime was unwilling to do so.[7] Turkey has previously flirted with the idea of an agreement with the Assad Regime in recent years that would allow Turkey to return its Syrian refugee population to Syria, but these negotiations failed.[8]
The SDF seized key areas in regime-held Deir ez Zor and Raqqa provinces on December 6, making it more difficult for Iran to move forces to Assad or to supply Iranian-backed forces in Syria. Geolocated footage posted on December 6 showed the SDF in both Deir ez Zor City and Albu Kamal City after the withdrawal of Syrian forces.[12] Later reports claimed that the SDF had captured Albu Kamal crossing after Iranian-backed Iraqi militias retreated from the area.[13] The seizure of these sites would prevent Iran from securing a key ground line of communication—the Albu Kamal-al Qaim Border Crossing and the M4 Highway—that Iran uses to transport weapons and personnel to support its Axis of Resistance partners.[14] The fact that neither the regime nor the Iranian-backed forces attempted to hold this key ground demonstrates the degree to which these forces are collapsing.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi announced on December 6 that the rate at which Iran can enrich uranium up to 60% purity is “increasing dramatically.”[57] The IAEA estimates that Iran's capacity to produce uranium enriched to 60% purity may be increased to 7-8 times more than Iran's previous rate of producing approximately 5-7 kilograms of uranium enriched to up to 60% purity per month. The United States Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon[58]. Weapons-grade uranium, suitable for use in nuclear weapons, must be enriched to approximately 90%.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-6-2024
Iran Update, December 7, 2024
The Bashar al Assad regime faces imminent collapse. The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) appears to have already collapsed itself, as its units have fled repeatedly from advancing opposition forces across the country. The SAA is combat ineffective and has yet to present a meaningful defense against the advancing opposition. The opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) have exploited the collapse of the SAA by advancing further southward and taking control of Homs City, which is the last major obstacle before Damascus. Various opposition groups have similarly taken control of large swaths of central and southern Syria and begun advancing into the southern and eastern outskirts of Damascus. The Assad regime appears to only control parts of Damascus and the western Syrian coast at the time of this writing. Syrian President Bashar al Assad has been entirely absent through the crisis and has refrained from making any public address.[1] Some unverified reports have suggested that Assad has fled, possibly to Iran.[2]
Iran appears unwilling to intervene militarily at any meaningful scale to support the Assad regime at this time. Iranian-backed forces have avoided engaging opposition forces almost entirely. The New York Times reported that an internal Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) memo acknowledged the growing likelihood that the Assad regime will collapse.[3] It is far from clear, moreover, that Iran could mobilize the forces necessary to save Assad at this point anyway. Iran has launched an emergency evacuation of its diplomatic staff and military officers from Damascus.[4] Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called for political dialogue with the opposition, reflecting heightened Iranian concerns about the longevity of the Assad regime.[5] This Iranian concern and inaction come amid reports that Russia is similarly unwilling to intervene in support of Assad.[6]
Unspecified US officials said that Turkey approved HTS launching its surprise offensive on November 27.[30] Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has expressed support for the HTS-led drive toward Damascus from the north.[31]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-7-2024