Iran Update, November 20, 2024
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors passed the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) censure resolution against Iran on November 21.[1] The resolution censured Iran for failing to cooperate with the IAEA and comply with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.[2] The resolution requires that the IAEA to produce a “comprehensive report” on Iranian nuclear activities by spring 2025.[3] CTP-ISW previously assessed that the report would almost certainly confirm Iranian noncompliance with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and lay the foundation for the E3 to reimpose UN Security Council sanctions on Iran—known as “snapback” sanctions.[4] The censure resolution comes after the IAEA issued a report on November 19 showing that Iran has increased its stockpile of highly enriched uranium since August 2024.[5] The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) Director Mohammad Eslami responded to the censure resolution by ordering the activation of a ”large collection of new and advanced centrifuges of various types.”[6] The AEOI stated that Iran will continue to cooperate with the IAEA, though it remains unclear to what extent. CTP-ISW will provide further assessments and details in the coming days.
The United States and E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany), prior to the IAEA Board of Governors vote on the censure resolution, called on Iran to “immediately dispose” of its highly enriched uranium stockpile on November 21. US Ambassador to the IAEA Laura Holgate said that Iran should stop producing uranium enriched up to 60 percent and “downblend its 60 percent [enriched uranium] stockpile entirely.”[7] Downblending is the process of converting highly enriched uranium into low-enriched uranium.[8] The E3 issued a joint statement similarly requesting that Iran “immediately dispose of its high enriched uranium stockpile.”[9] Iran previously offered to cap its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60 percent at 185 kilograms in exchange for the IAEA Board of Governors rejecting the censure resolution.[10] The E3 stated that a cap of 185 kilograms would mean Iran still “retain[s] an excessively large stockpile of high enriched uranium as well the capability to resume enrichment to 60 percent at any point,” however.[11] 185 kilograms of 60-percent enriched uranium is enough, if enriched further, to produce four nuclear weapons.[12]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-21-2024
Iran Update, November 22, 2024
Iran is activating a “substantial number” of advanced centrifuges, increasing the rate of Iranian uranium enrichment.[1] Iran is responding to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors passing a censure resolution submitted by the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) on November 21.[2] The resolution condemns Iran for failing to fully cooperate with the IAEA.[3] Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Spokesperson Behrouz Kamalvandi said on November 22 that Iran will “significantly increase” its uranium enrichment capacity in response.[4] Iran could activate some of the IR-6 or IR-2m centrifuges that it has installed at the Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities, respectively, in recent months. The IAEA confirmed in August 2024 that Iran had installed but not yet activated eight cascades of IR-6 centrifuges at Fordow.[5] The IAEA also confirmed in August 2024 that Iran had installed 10 cascades of IR-2m centrifuges at Natanz.[6] Iran has installed six additional cascades of IR-2m centrifuges at Natanz since August 2024, bringing the total number of cascades of IR-2m centrifuges at Natanz to 37.[7] Only 15 out of these 37 cascades had been activated as of November 2024.[8] Iran currently has around 182.3 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60 percent, which is enough uranium, if enriched further, to produce four nuclear weapons.[9]
Lead Iranian nuclear negotiator Kazem Gharib Abadi threatened on November 22 that Iran would withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) if the E3 triggers the “snapback” mechanism in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The JCPOA snapback mechanism allows its signatories to reimpose UN Security Council sanctions on Iran in the event of “significant non-performance by Iran of JCPOA commitments.”[10] The E3 censure resolution requires the IAEA to produce a “comprehensive report” on Iranian nuclear activities by spring 2025.[11] CTP-ISW previously assessed that the report would almost certainly confirm Iranian noncompliance with the JCPOA and lay the foundation for the E3 to impose “snapback” sanctions.[12] UK media reported in early November 2024 that the United Kingdom is prepared to trigger snapback sanctions against Iran.[13] Iranian officials have long threatened to withdraw from the NPT, but Gharib Abadi’s warning is noteworthy given the current standoff between Iran and the E3. Gharib Abadi’s warning also comes amid numerous indications that Iran has very likely restarted its nuclear weapons research program.[14]
Iranian Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Minister Brigadier General Aziz Nasir Zadeh and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro concluded the 10th Iran-Venezuela Joint Economic Commission in Caracas, Venezuela on November 21.[109] Iranian and Venezuelan officials signed cooperation agreements to enhance trade, industrial projects, and technology transfer.[110] Both sides emphasized joint efforts to resist global hegemony and strengthen economic ties, building on a 20-year partnership agreement signed in June 2022 during Maduro’s visit to Tehran.[111]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-22-2024