Iran is likely trying to build operational surprise ahead of its expected attack on Israel. Iranian officials and state media have suggested repeatedly in recent weeks that an attack is imminent.[1] They have likewise suggested that they are imminently delaying the attack to create uncertainty about the timing of the attack and thus stoke anxiety and fear among Israelis.[2] An IRGC-affiliated outlet published a graphic on August 15, for instance, boasting that the ambiguity surrounding the timing of the attack is just as harmful as the strike itself will be.[3] Iran has tried to build this operational surprise while forgoing having any strategic surprise. Iranian officials have been clear in their plans to attack likely in order to reduce the risk of miscalculation, keep the escalation relatively contained, and to avoid an all-out war.
The operational surprise that Iran is trying to build is meant to increase the likelihood that an Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel would inflict serious damage. John Kirby—the US White House National Security communications advisor—warned on August 15 that Iran could launch a strike with “little or no warning.”[4] US officials speaking to Western media have indicated that there is no consensus about when exactly an Iranian attack will occur.[5] Iran likely seeks to exploit this lack of warning to help its drones and missiles penetrate Israeli air defenses and strike some of their intended targets within Israel. Iran has taken similar approaches in previous attacks, such as the large-scale Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel in April 2024 and the Iranian missile attack on US forces in Iraq in January 2020.[6] Iran in both instances had forgone strategic surprise but cultivated operational surprise by threatening to attack and sending conflicting messages and statements about when exactly it would occur.
CTP-ISW continues to assess that the most likely course of action is that Iran and its Axis of Resistance will conduct a coordinated drone and missile attack on Israel. Senior Iranian officials have been consistent in their statements saying that they will respond “forcefully” to Israel killing Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.[7] Western intelligence services have moreover observed Iranian preparations for an attack.[8]
CTP-ISW continues to evaluate the likelihood of other courses of action in which Iran does not launch a major, coordinated strike on Israel. Three anonymous Iranian officials speaking to Reuters on August 13 claimed that Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah would refrain from attacking Israel if it reached a ceasefire-hostage agreement with Hamas.[9] US President Joe Biden similarly said that he “expects” that a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip achieved in the next few days would lead Iran to refrain from attacking.[10] CTP-ISW assesses that this course of action is unlikely at the moment in part because the Iranian regime has not suggested this possibility publicly and has instead maintained that it will attack. Hamas also refused to participate in the latest round of negotiations in Qatar on August 15, making this course of action even less likely.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-15-2024
The Iranian regime is continuing to signal that it will conduct a serious retaliation against Israel in response to Israel killing several senior Axis of Resistance leaders, including Ismail Haniyeh, in recent days. Numerous Friday prayer leaders vowed on August 16 that Iran will give a “harsh” and “tooth-breaking” response to Israel for killing Haniyeh.[11] The Shiraz Friday prayer leader claimed that Israel will become more “insolent” if Iran does not respond to Haniyeh’s death.[12] The Karaj Friday prayer leader separately claimed that failing to respond to Israel would signal to Israel that Iran has “surrendered and accepted humiliation.”[13] This rhetoric is consistent with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s remarks on August 14, which emphasized that Iran cannot execute a “non-tactical” retreat.[14] Khamenei directly appoints Friday prayer leaders, and the prayer leaders receive guidance for their weekly Friday sermons from the Office of the Supreme Leader.[15] The consistent rhetoric among various Friday prayer leaders therefore suggests that the rhetoric is part of a coordinated regime messaging effort.
Iran is reportedly seeking security partnerships with two Chinese satellite companies specializing in low-cost satellites capable of capturing high-resolution imagery.[40] This capability could enable Iran to enhance its intelligence-gathering capabilities to improve the effectiveness of its strikes. The Washington Post, citing unspecified Western security officials, reported on August 16 that Iran is seeking a partnership with two Chinese satellite companies specializing in manufacturing and operating small, low-cost satellites with optical equipment capable of producing high-resolution images. The Washington Post reported that the optical equipment of the Chinese satellites is “at least twice as sensitive” as the most advanced satellites currently operated by Iran. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and the Chinese companies have exchanged multiple delegations over the past few months in an attempt to secure these partnerships.
Higher resolution satellite imagery could allow Iranian military services to improve their targeting practices for future operations targeting US, Israeli, and Arab military bases. Iran would also almost certainly share this targeting information with its proxies and partners to enable their attacks. Iranian state media previously reported in July 2020 that the IRGC used its satellites to collect intelligence on US military positions in the region.[41] The United States previously sanctioned one of the companies Iran is pursuing a partnership with, Chang Guang Satellite Technology Co., due to its support for Russia's Wagner Group.[42]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-16-2024