Iran Update, August 11, 2024
Iran has not retaliated quickly against Israel because Iran very likely seeks to ensure that its next attack restores deterrence with Israel while simultaneously avoiding a large-scale war. Iran previously attacked Israel on April 13, 12 days after Israel killed one of Iran’s senior-most military commanders in Syria on April 1.[1] Iran and its allies fired around 170 one-way attack drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles at Israel in its April 2024 attack.[2] The United States, Israel, and their allies intercepted most of the projectiles, and the Iranian attack did significantly less damage than Tehran intended.[3] Iranian leaders are therefore incentivized to carefully and slowly calculate their next attack to ensure that the attack inflicts serious damage on Israel, thereby restoring Iranian deterrence with Israel. Iran will likely also ensure that the attack will not trigger a major war. Western intelligence sources previously assessed that Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah may attack Israel on the Jewish holiday Tisha B’Av on August 12-13, although Iran might wait longer to conduct its next attack to ensure that the attack achieves its strategic goals.[4]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-11-2024
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is conducting a military exercise in Kermanshah Province in western Iran between August 9 and 13 to “enhance combat readiness and vigilance.”[9] The Najaf-e Ashraf Operational Base, which covers Kermanshah, Hamedan, and Ilam provinces, is overseeing the exercise.[10] The 29th IRGC Nabi Akram Division operates under the Najaf-e Ashraf Operational Base.[11] Iran separately issued a notice to airmen (NOTAM) on August 10 warning pilots not to fly near the Nojeh Airbase in Hamedan Province between August 11 and 14.[12] This NOTAM is similar to previous Iranian NOTAMs issued over the last week.[13]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-11-2024
Iran Update, August 12, 2024
US and Israeli officials have warned that Iran will likely conduct a large-scale, coordinated attack targeting Israel in the days ahead.[1] White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby expressed concern on August 12 about the “increasing probability that Iran and its proxies will attack in the coming days.”[2] Israel similarly assesses that Iran will likely attack Israel directly “within days,” according to unspecified sources speaking to Axios.[3] These warnings are consistent with Western intelligence sources previously assessing that Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah may attack Israel on the Jewish holiday Tisha B’Av on August 12-13.[4]
The unspecified sources separately told Axios that Israel expects Lebanese Hezbollah to attack first followed by a direct Iranian attack.[5] Axios similarly reported on August 5 that the United States expects Iran and its Axis of Resistance to conduct “two waves” of attacks on Israel, citing unspecified US officials.[6] The officials added that the Iran-Hezbollah attack will likely be “bigger” than the Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel in April 2024 and that Iran and Hezbollah might target military sites near civilian areas.[7] These statements are all consistent with CTP-ISW’s ongoing assessment that Iran and its Axis of Resistance will most likely conduct a coordinated, large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel in response to Israel killing senior Axis of Resistance leaders, including Ismail Haniyeh, in recent weeks.[8]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-12-2024