Iran and its Axis of Resistance will most likely conduct a coordinated, large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel in response to Israel killing Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. CTP-ISW previously outlined this scenario as one of the most dangerous courses of action that Iran could pursue.[1] Iranian state media reported on August 4 that Iran and the Axis of Resistance will conduct a “quadrilateral operation” against Israel.[2] The operation would reportedly involve Lebanese Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias conducting coordinated strikes on Israel at the same time as Iranian forces. Iranian state media added that Hezbollah seeks to attack Israel to retaliate for Israel killing a senior Hezbollah officer in Beirut on July 30, while the Houthis seek to retaliate against Israel for the IDF airstrike on July 20 that hit Houthi military targets in al Hudaydah, Yemen.[3] The leader of Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, Akram al Kaabi, published an image on August 4 signaling his intent to participate in an attack on Israel.[4] Three anonymous US and Israeli officials told Axios on August 4 that Iran and the Axis of Resistance could conduct their coordinate attack as soon as August 5.[5]
Iran and the Axis of Resistance will probably conduct an attack that is more escalatory than the drone and missile attack that Iran conducted against Israel in April 2024. Iran and its allies fired around 170 one-way attack drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles at Israel in the April 2024 attack. Iran designed this strike package of over 300 projectiles to inflict serious damage on Israel and sought to thereby establish deterrence. But the United States, Israel, and their allies intercepted the vast majority of projectiles, so that the Iranian attack did significantly less damage than Tehran intended.[6]
Iran could modify the April 2024 attack model in at least four ways to increase the likelihood of inflicting serious damage on Israel.
1. Iran could increase the volume of projectiles fired at Israel. Iran could fire more drones and missiles from Iranian territory or instruct its proxy and partner militias across the Middle East to fire more. Drones and missiles fired from Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria would be much harder to intercept than those launched from Iran given the shorter distances and flight times to Israel. US and Israeli forces would have significantly less time than they did in April 2024 to intercept those projectiles.
2. Iran could change the number of locations in Israel that it targets. Iran targeted two remote locations in Israel in the April 2024 attack.[7] Iran could exploit the short flight times from Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria to concentrate fire on a single target rather than against two. Shorter flight times for drones from Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria could make it easier to coordinate them with ballistic missiles fired from Iran. Tehran could alternatively attack a greater number of targets across Israel.
3. Iran could order simultaneous attacks on US forces, especially in eastern Syria. Iran only targeted Israeli targets in the April 2024 attack. Iranian-backed militia attacks attacking US positions could, in some circumstances, pull American attention and resources away from identifying and intercepting projectiles bound for Israel.[8] Iranian leaders may calculate that their projectiles have a higher likelihood of penetrating Israeli air defenses if the United States has to focus on defending its own forces.
4. Iran and its allies could conduct a series of drone and missile attacks over several days. The April 2024 attack consisted of only one large volley of drones and missiles fired from Iran. But Iran and its allies could fire multiple volleys over an extended period in the next attack. Stretching attacks over this period could enable Iran and the Axis of Resistance to learn and adjust their attacks as they observe how successful each volley is.
Iran and the Axis of Resistance have a shrinking window of opportunity to attack Israel as the United States moves additional military assets to the Middle East. The United States has decided to send a carrier strike group, naval cruisers and destroyers, and a squadron of fighter jets to the Middle East in preparation for an Iranian-led attack on Israel.[9] The arrival of these assets to the region would improve the ability of the United States to respond to an Iranian attack, which Iranian leaders almost certainly recognize. Tehran may conclude that it needs to launch an attack before the United States can position and ready its assets in the region in order to maximize how much damage Iran inflicts on Israel.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-4-2024
Iran Update, August 5, 2024
Iran’s identification of targets in Israel does not independently verify CTP-ISW’s assessment of a likely Iranian strike because it is more likely intended to achieve informational effects rather than to specify the precise targets to be struck. Iran’s messaging does align with CTP-ISW’s assessment that Iran and its Axis of Resistance will most likely conduct a coordinated, large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel, however.[6] The operation could involve Lebanese Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias conducting coordinated strikes on Israel at the same time as Iranian forces. Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iraqi militias have all expressed an intent to attack Israel.[7] CTP-ISW has observed unconfirmed reports that additional groups, such as Iranian-backed militias in Syria and Palestinian fighters in the West Bank may participate in an Iranian-led attack.[8]
More: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-5-2024