The only real credible military threat is if Putin reconstitutes a working army in Belarus and attacks Kyiv again to relieve pressure in the East and South. But I don't see how he can arm and train a large enough force. The Ukrainian army is now much better trained and equipped than it was, and if Putin tries that, I don't think they will hesitate to use artillery and rockets against Russian bases in Belarus. I also think Lukashenko is delicately trying to extricate himself from Putin's war.
I still think the chance of Ukraine regaining Crimea is pretty low, but I don’t think they will be willing to negotiate until Russia is pushed back to the Feb 23 line or close to it. Putin is clearly trying the huff and puff into negotiations now. I have relatives in Europe and read the French, German and Polish papers every day (the last in translation). People are complaining about the high prices but no one is freezing or starving and are unlikely to do so. No mass layoffs yet, although some gas-dependent industries are clearly suffering like fertilizer production and glass making.
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Kerch Bridge is a large symbol and confirmation of Poot’s theft of Crimea.
Making the Kerch bridge untenable will help Ukraine in negotiations and will mess with Poots fragile psychology. Thanks for the report from you European relatives.
“The only real credible military threat is if Putin reconstitutes a working army in Belarus and attacks Kyiv again to relieve pressure in the East and South.”
I don’t think the Belarusians want any part of this war.
“I also think Lukashenko is delicately trying to extricate himself from Putin’s war.”
Think so, as well.