May I ask a question?
More than 15+ years ago when I was assigned to Australia when the subject of the monarchy came up in general friendly conversation. My Australian colleagues would always say ‘Australia will become a republic after Elizabeth. It is still in commonwealth status out of respect to her.’.
My comment back to them was ‘That would be sad! There’s a history there that in my opinion would be sad to walk away from.’.
The motion was defeated 55%-45%. So, it was reasonably close although it's still a ten percent margin, and it was also defeated in all six states and for a referendum to pass, as well as getting an overall majority, it also needs a majority in four of six states. So, it wasn't as close as some people think.
Quite a few people think that the Queen's personal popularity (which was very considerable) made the difference then. Personally, I think it probably made some difference, but nowhere near the ten percent gap. And the new King, though not unpopular, doesn't have the same popularity his mother did.
So, if we have another referendum - and the Labor government does want to have one, republicanism being more of a left wing thing in Australia than a right wing one, although the Prime Minister has said he will not have a referendum on this in his first term, so such a vote is at least five years or so away... yes, it will probably be somewhat easier for the republicans to win than it was in 1999.
But it's far from a foregone conclusion. The most important thing - and the thing was most important in 1999 - is likely to be the proposed model. I would say there is probably majority support now for the principle of becoming a republic (although I disagree myself) but people will want to be sure that the form of any republic doesn't make our government less stable than it currently is - the crown represents a check and balance on the power of Parliament and the Prime Minister and can't just be easily discarded without risking governmental overreach.
Even if we do become a republic, all current proposals would still have Australia remaining part of the Commonwealth - there's no inconsistency, there are now more republics in the Commonwealth than constitutional monarchies.
I'm a constitutional monarchist, so I won't be supporting a republic - but the right model wouldn't be a disaster, so my main concern, personally, is working to ensure that if we do make a change, it's done with due regard to the constitutional consequences.