I agree with Morris’s observation that the MAGA strength is underestimated. It’s unknown if the underwhelmed RATs he speaks of include the D’s who would now vote for President Trump but don’t feel they could ever admit it because they were so fiercely anti-Trump before. That segment of the population is real and may never be quantified until after they vote and everyone wonders where all the Trump votes came from..
I remember seeing people in 2016 (in-person voting at the polling places) in my county, deep blue East SF Bay Area but still had a strong hunch they were Trump voters.