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[I hope you’re right! I respect Manchin for standing up to Biden and Schumer. But I always had the feeling that Manchin was just holding out for the right price.]

He’s not standing up to Biden and Schumer. He’s doing the minimum necessary to save his seat without flipping to the GOP. Trump won by 40 points in WV. That’s not a Trump phenomenon. It’s a GOP phenom. WV is becoming extremely Republican in its voting patterns. Morrissey* was the first GOP AG in ~80 years, and the man is from NJ, where he ran for a House seat.

If Manchin doesn’t flip to the GOP, he is done. If he does this deal, even if he flips later, he’s done anyway. If Manchin becomes a born-again Republican, I could see Morrissey running against him in the primary just to settle some unfinished business from 2018.

* In 2012, Morrissey won AG by 2.5%. In 2016, he won by 10%. In 2020, he won by 28%. You can almost read the writing on the wall for 2024.