Iran Hit Hard As Cheap Russian Crude Floods China
below a couple of graphs from your link:
As it attempts to maintain flows following its invasion of Ukraine and the resultant Western sanctions, Russia has relied upon China as a reliable outlet where it can offload its crude. That is now impacting Iran, as China had been its preferred destination for its otherwise banned crude output.
Russia overtook Saudi Arabia in May as exports surged, becoming the top supplier to China, the world's biggest importer of crude oil. And while Iran has been forced to cut prices to maintain its sales to China, it is still seeing strong flows due to China's surging demand, as it wakes up following its Covid lockdowns, and begins to reopen the country.
Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore says, “The only competition between Iranian and Russian barrels may end up being in China, which would work entirely to Beijing's advantage, This is also likely to make the Gulf producers uneasy, seeing their prized markets taken over by heavily discounted crude.” Although China seems to not record Iranian oil imports, with official records reflecting only three months of imports from Iran since 2020, third party figures show a steady stream of deliveries. According to Kpler, imports registered at over 700,000 barrels per day in May and June.
However Russian Urals have taken some flow from the Iranian volumes, according to industry consultant FGE. According to traders, Iranian light and heavy grades have been priced to be competitive with Urals flows arriving in August, at about $10 below the cost of Brent crude futures. Before the invasion, Iran was only discounting their supply by about $4-$5 per barrel.