With even permabull economists conceding that the US economy is slowing rapidly and today’s payrolls report should show a big slowdown, moments ago the BLS confirmed yet again that the monthly payrolls number is nothing but a politically mandated homework assignment (where trends only change when someone gets a tap on the shoulder), when - at a time when US GDP is set to decline for two quarters in a row - it reported that in June US payrolls rose by 372K, smashing expectations of a 268K increase, coming well above the whisper number of 245K, and trouncing Goldman’s preferred payrolls range of 175-250K.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 68,000, from +436,000 to +368,000, and the change for May was revised down by 6,000, from +390,000 to +384,000. With these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 74,000 lower than previously reported.
The June payrolls number was not only the 3rd consecutive beat to expectations, but the biggest beat going back to February.
Surprisingly, while the establishment survey printed a red hot +372,000, the household survey showed just the opposite, tumbling by -315,000.
What is even more confounding is that according to “big data” watched by Goldman, today’s print should have been a -1 million drop.
Much more remarkable - and improbable - is that the underemployment rate printed 6.7%, the lowest on record!
Believe it or not, the covid pandemic is still impacting the labor market according to the BLS:....
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wall-street-stunned-june-payrolls-unexpectedly-smash-expectations
As for the White House, it will be a tough spin because they will want to showcase the continuing job gains and the continuing wage gains as a good thing, the flip side is that without some slowdown, it adds to inflationary pressures, and right now inflation remains the No. 1 concern among US households.
I call BS on this report. Joe touts the jobs numbers, but they’re too economically illiterate to know this could cause the Fed to tighten even more.
Stephen Miller
@StephenM
What BLS jobs report actually shows—it’s CATASTROPHIC:
-Almost 5 MILLION more Americans not in labor force today than pre-pandemic
-Employment down 750K from pre-pandemic but working-age population up 4+million—meaning over 3M jobs MISSING
-Youth workforce participation down 2pts
To say nothing of crippling inflation, sky-high debt, skyrocketing living expenses, incomprehensible energy costs, mass importation of low-wage corporate labor to displace U.S. workers, smashed supply chains & harrowing nationwide formula shortages.
Biden economy is a NIGHTMARE.