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To: week 71

i hope so


73 posted on 06/22/2022 6:36:45 PM PDT by al baby (Hi Mom Hi Dad)
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To: All

The size or number of sunspots is not a very reliable indicator of risk of a major solar flare. They can happen at various times during solar cycles and may not be associated with massive sunspots. The 1947 cycle had some famously large sunspots and did not unleash the worst flares, while the modern record set in 1989 came during a more moderate sunspot peak. The Carrington event (Sep 2, 1859) would fry modern electronics and prove to be a major disaster, and it was associated with a relatively tame solar cycle (granted it was near the peak of that one).

Luckily we were only as far along the technology pathway as the telegraph system which was badly damaged by the electric charges created. A less volatile event in 1911 did similar damage because there was more infrastructure of more complexity. The 1989 event knocked the Quebec electric grid out of service which had a ripple effect throughout eastern North America.

If we get a Carrington 2.0, it will be no laughing matter. And we are basically not that prepared. In 2012 we avoided that catastrophic result because a similar flare was directed away from the earth at right angles to our position in the solar system (that one basically shot straight left from the Sun as viewed from earth).

How much longer will be lucky? Maybe the question we should really ask is, when will our governments and electric utilities have a solution in place to set into motion? These flares are not instantaneous, we get a certain amount of warning up to 24h in advance (they had no idea what solar flares were in 1859 and astronomers were just beginning to study them).


75 posted on 06/22/2022 7:13:38 PM PDT by Peter ODonnell (If only one of those bears Putin wrestled had won)
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