[2. Russia is almost certain to respond to this. Forcefully.
3. This could very easily/predictably result in war between NATO/U.S. and Russia.]
Define forcefully. How about this - let’s make a bet. My view is that in 1 year, Russia will not be at war with the US/NATO over this. Mark your calendar. If I’m wrong, I’ll initiate a vanity thread called “I am a moronic poopy head”. If you’re wrong, you initiate that thread. How about it? Do we have a deal?
Minor quibble: Whatever the next step is, I expect it to be over in less than a year.
Aside from that, you’ve got a deal.