How many Russians want to die over Lithuania?
The EU put the sanctions on. If Russia attacks Lithuania over it, the US will be obligated and all of NATO will be obligated to enter the war.
I don’t think Russia will do squat. They are already bogged down in Ukraine. There are ethnic sections of Russia ready to rebel. Oh Russia will cut oil off to Lithuania, but Lithuania already said they were prepared to go without Russian oil and it wouldn’t cause any critical problems for them.
Blocking Russian land access to Kaliningrad by Lithuania is itself an act of war. It was initiated by Lithuania. Russian action to reopen it is retaliation. Article 5 requires an enemy to initiate the attack on a member, not to go to the aid of someone who provokes a retaliation. Lithuania is acting irresponsibly.
The headquarters of the Russian Baltic fleet is in Kaliningrad along with half a million Russians. Of course Russians will fight to protect their homeland and fellow citizens.
Conventionally, Russia poses no real threat to NATO or the EU. Hence, escalation is more likely and dangerous. It could start with cyber warfare and then to kinetic nuclear war. The Russians have fought a restrained, limited war in Ukraine. They have not taken out the electrical grid, railway system, dams, water treatment plants, etc. That could change.
We have slipped into a new Cold War with no exit in sight. The sanctions against Russia are hurting the West and the global economy more than they hurt Russia. Most of the world are ignoring the sanctions. The ruble is stronger now than before the war. The dollar is in danger of losing its status as the world’s reserve currency. We are now bogged down in another war with close to $65 billion invested and much more to come. Over Ukraine?