You’re right they were there but not in the quantities thought. All ‘a priori’ analysis was, as all intelligence analysis is, educated guessing. Think of it like a non-invasive (no x-rays, etc. no energy into\onto patient) medical diagnosis - say a 1900s style medical exam. Gather limted evidence try to tie it together into a conclusion based on training\education & experience - in short “educated guessing “!
I know and understand that every President will lie to us when necessary. I want our President to lie when national security interests warrant it.
President Eisenhower said we didn't have spy planes watching the USSR. I wouldn't expect anything else.
When I was an Airman in Sacramento and picked up the shout down order wire to, like an idiot, ask the Control Tower if the SR-71 flew in the day before, do you think they told me the truth. No, the controller on duty jumped down my throat and asked who I was. I told him I was Airman higgmeister ("hm" prosign) from the Tech Control Facility. The Controller told me they are not allowed to give that kind of information and slammed the handset down.
The President lied to us, whoopy doop.