I agree with you as far as him quitting in midterm like that. When he showed up as a Fox News contributor, I believe he actually said that it was just too tough in DC and he wanted to get out of the swamp (I am paraphrasing here). So he’s a quitter, and I’ve never really taken any of his commentary seriously as a result.
I had always thought of him as a possible Hatch successor. He’s probably thinking the ‘24 senate nomination is his for the asking. The only possible challenger I see is the black football player in the house. We would then find out if racism is in the Mormon DNA.