You spin a far too realistic narrative for anyone to sleep well. I would only add that I think it will begin with the US pushing Poland to invade and “defend” western Ukraine. At that point Poland can invoke NATO Article 5 collective defense obligations and we are off to the races. The oligarchs around the world will retreat to their doomsday retreats on the southern island of New Zealand and the rest of us will soon die from the radioactive nuclear fallout.
If Poland -invades- Ukraine, they don’t get to invoke article 5.