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Ukraine ping

[Had a dust-up with the Japanese along the Manvhurian border in 1937, which the Soviets won.]

This was trumpeted as a great victory and built up into the first evidence of Russian supermen (in much the same way as others built up the German supermen of the Heer in the post-war era) of WWII. Then in the post-Cold War era, Soviet archives were cracked open for a few years (until Putin slammed them shut), and the truth emerged - that the Soviets had scratched out a victory against a Japanese force inferior in numbers (equipment and men) and technology, while sustaining higher casualties than the Japanese, while on defense (!).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battles_of_Khalkhin_Gol#Soviet_assessment
[Following the battle, the Soviets generally found the results unsatisfactory, despite their victory. Though the Soviet forces in the Far East in 1939 were not plagued by fundamental issues to the same extent as those in Europe during the 1941 campaigns, their generals were still unimpressed by their army’s performance. As noted by Pyotr Grigorenko, the Red Army went in with a very large advantage in technology, numbers, and firepower, yet still suffered huge losses, which he blamed on poor leadership.[29]

Although their victory and the subsequent negotiation of the Soviet–Japanese Neutrality Pact secured the Far East for the duration of the Soviet-German War, the Red Army always remained cautious about the possibility of another, larger Japanese incursion as late as early 1944. In December 1943, when the American military mission proposed a logistics base be set up east of Lake Baikal, the Red Army authorities were according to Coox “shocked by the idea and literally turned white”.[73] Due to this caution, the Red Army kept a large force in the Far East even during the bleakest days of the war in Europe. For example, on July 1, 1942, Soviet forces in the Far East consisted of 1,446,012 troops, 11,759 artillery pieces, 2,589 tanks and self-propelled guns, and 3,178 combat aircraft.[74] Despite this, the Soviet operations chief of the Far Eastern Front, General A. K. Kazakovtsev, was not confident in his army group’s ability to stop an invasion if the Japanese committed to it (at least in 1941–1942), commenting: “If the Japanese enter the war on Hitler’s side ... our cause is hopeless.”[75] ]

If you read about Nomonhan (Khalkhin Gol) from the Japanese side (for example, Coox’s writings) it is pretty clear that the conclusion they drew after the engagement was that they’d better not poke the bear again. Sure they inflicted a lot of casualties on the Russians, but they realized that there was no way they could match Russian armor and logistical support capabilities.

There was a debate in Japan in the Fall of 1941 about striking North while the Russians were engaged with the Germans, but the memory of Nomonhan contributed to their decision to instead go South to scoop up the Euro colonies.

Ukraine ping [Had a dust-up with the Japanese along the Manvhurian border in 1937, which the Soviets won.] This was trumpeted as a great victory and built up into the first evidence of Russian supermen (in much the same way as others built up the German supermen of the Heer in the post-war era) of WWII. Then in the post-Cold War era, Soviet archives were cracked open for a few years (until Putin slammed them shut), and the truth emerged - that the Soviets had scratched out a victory against a Japanese force inferior in numbers (equipment and men) and technology, while sustaining higher casualties than the Japanese, while on defense (!). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battles_of_Khalkhin_Gol#Soviet_assessment ... Despite this, the Soviet operations chief of the Far Eastern Front, General A. K. Kazakovtsev, was not confident in his army group’s ability to stop an invasion if the Japanese committed to it (at least in 1941–1942), commenting: “If the Japanese enter the war on Hitler’s side ... our cause is hopeless.”[75] ]

Don't forget that the Soviets lost to the Poles and their Ukrainian allies in 1920-21. Lenin offered the Poles all of Ukraine West of the Dneiper, but under pressure from the British and French it was foolishly declined. That would have denied the Soviets much of Ukraine's farmland and given a reborn Polish-Ukrainian commonwealth a port on the Black Sea. Also note that the Soviets performed poorly in 1939 when the Polish chose to engage them. When the Poles fought the Soviets then, they did very well until they ran out of ammunition.

The Soviet edge over the Japanese was in armor. Had Hitler shared some German tank technology and designs with the Japanese to encourage them to attack the Soviets rather than the U.S., the Soviet Union would have been conquered and world history would have been much different. Hitler's racist mindset cost him a victory.