The thing I worry most about is how Ukraine can replace their personnel losses. I worry about them eventually becoming a spent force - no reinforcements, no recruits, no ability to sustain offensive operations.
I am glad to see that they are fighting down south. I think a lot of people have not noticed the territorial inroads the Russian forces have made in that area. If Ukraine is cut off from the Black Sea, that could hurt them both short term and long term.
[The thing I worry most about is how Ukraine can replace their personnel losses. I worry about them eventually becoming a spent force - no reinforcements, no recruits, no ability to sustain offensive operations.]
Russian personel losses look like they are two or three to one compared to Ukranian losses. Armored vehicle losses look to be bigger.
Russians can throw in more troops but they are cannon fodder. They don’t have that many seasoned troops.
Ukrainians have plenty of arms and now some of the best tech in the world.
Right now time is against the Russians. Why? Ukrainians have shown they are willing to let their whole country be destroyed if that’s what it takes to win this war. I don’t think they are willing to cede territory in order to gain peace. The sanctions hammer will come down on the Russians this summer. Then we’ll see if the Russians are willing to let their country go down the drain to win this war. right now, that’s an unknown.
“The thing I worry most about is how Ukraine can replace their personnel losses.”
Often, when a country is fighting to defend its very existence against an invasion, ordinary people step up. They may not be front line troops, or well-drilled, but they can contribute to the defense.
Ukraine has mobilized their reservists, so by now they should have plenty of men to assign as individual replacements. Not well trained probably, but more so than most the Russians can come up with.
I think close to 200K military aged males returned to Ukraine. The problem is training and equipment.
Ukraine has a large number of young men who have served their mandatory military service during the combat in the Donbass region since 2014. Reportedly there are more than 250,000 veterans who have some combat experience in that group.
Ukraine also has a lot of regional defense forces, which are organized local military groups, and plenty of civilians ready to fight as paramilitary fighters.